Mafia: The Rellyw Rebellion - Game Thread

Moirean

I'd rather just get rid of quiet people. The game is fun when it's active and I do not understand why people ask to play and then don't engage in it at all.

Unvote: Minarael

Vote: Kaeus

Moirean

Oh, meant to say this in my last post - bear in mind that my pick for a quiet person is not purely random. Based on the night action information, I've been able to make some tentative lists of "probably rellyw/maybe conclave" and "probably conclave" and "definitely not Indorani." By picking people NOT on these lists, it means I'm not just shooting blindly in the dark to grab a quiet person to lynch - which means a fairly "random" lynch has significantly higher odds than it did on day 1 to hit an Indorani.

Moirean

...and if the person is rellyw, meh, but I'm sick of people not playing and clogging things up.

Vharen

Does the Warden report *actually* say who the Indorani targeted? The Indo hitting the jailed person again seems horribly unlikely, so I just want to be absolutely clear. It might be a small detail, but it might end up making a difference.

Minarael

The lack of activity from a large portion of the game does make things really sluggish.

In the process of sorting out the potential risks of targeting folks who we think have a strong chance of being Conclave, I had the durr realization that we have no risk of them turning on us if they are locked up and can't kill, and it's not at all in their best interest to keep off rellyw while hunting down other factions, so I had to scrap everything I wrote and start again.

Basically, plucking out people likely to be indorani seems a better bet than people more likely to be conclave. Can you give me a rough estimate on how strong your suspicions are? Cuz just plucking out quiet people when I think a few people are demonstrating scummy behavior is icky. But if you think you have a fairly reasonable likelihood of success, I'll back it.

Moirean

@vharen - Yes, the warden reports says who the Indorani targetted.

@minarael - Locking up Conclaves means they get a night kill. Their lack of one so far is part of the reason I've been able to narrow things down.

@Conclaves - I know you guys are doing your own thing right now but I'd like to propose a temporary truce to help us root out the Indorani: only use night actions on people outside of your Conclave. This will help us narrow down who is what; since us rellyw have our own list of mostly-verified people, we can observe what happens, and eliminate people to further whittle down a list of who doesn't belong to either Conclaves or the rellyw. In addition to finding Indorani, this also means that hey, you may expose rival Conclaves, so there's motivation for you to do this.

As for numbers, hitting an Indorani from the list I've made is a 1/5 chance. Not ideal, but it's definitely better than what we started the game with, and it also deals with the issue of quiet folks really bogging the game down. Note that the odds would be higher if the rellyw power roles all would coordinate with me but, alas, it seems I'm still not fully trusted.

Vharen

Alright, to the report thing. 

I also want to point out (possibly again, I don't remember if I said it before) that no extra death from someone being locked up does not necessarily mean they're not in a Conclave. I would assume that they can opt not to kill anyone, and I would personally not trade 33% of my strength for ~5% of my enemy's.

Moirean

This is true. I was mostly responding to Mina's statement. Maybe I misunderstood what she was saying, but it sounded like she's saying "If we lock up Conclaves, they can't do anything" which is not true.

Minarael

I was referencing the night deaths, not their powers in general. 

Kaeus

I'm mostly a lurker because of a few reasons. First being that I still have no idea who the bad guys are. You all are throwing the blame around fine, but I still see a ton of people (like me) sitting back and watching the bickering. Is there a scum in the conversation, are they all just sitting around letting us Rellyw point fingers at each other? Who knows.

I'm not going to throw a vote out randomly, I don't want to be responsible for starting a train on someone when I'm not sure.

It still seems like there are only 5 people actually doing the talking, then again it might just be too many damn M names meshing into one or two people...

Moirean

Unless we get really lucky, you'll never "know" who the bad guys are.

Moirean

Minarael said:

I was referencing the night deaths, not their powers in general. 

I still don't get what you were saying, then. In our current situation, the only way the Conclaves can kill is by jailing them.

Minarael

..it wasn't very complicated, but I might have not been very clear. It's been a long day.

Basically, I was analyzing -why- we'd want to avoid Conclaves, realized that I actually agree with you that we want to avoid Conclaves, and stated my reasoning. Currently, their powers are in use and can tell us things, confuse things a tad bit, but generally the net effect is positive for us. If one of them gains dominance, then there is a strong chance they'll have no problem offing rellyw. So they can actively screw us with powers -and- slaughter us. Not at all in our best interest. 

Beforehand I was thinking they had a stronger reason to focus on the other conclave/indorani, but then I remembered that they need to whittle down townie numbers to win.

Teani

So, Meskhenet has responded that she is reading the thread, but not said anything else in her defence despite all the votes against her. Where, exactly, does she fit in your tentative lists, Moirean? I get that Kaeus was not a random pick, but is he a better pick than Meskhenet then, just for being quiet?

Another question for Moirean: You point out that no one seems to pay attention to what happened during the night round, but you do not place any votes or make attempts to try to explain what you think of it.

My own thoughts on that is that it's confusing. One of Loyalists decides to send Piper away, then the other member of the same conclave shifts that and instead Toz is sent away. Was this an attempt to draw someone out, make Piper's possible powers reflect as Toz, but since he's out they wouldn't work? Or is that Conclave just as bad at coordinating as we are even though they actually have confirmed members?

Ilyon

I'd be very reluctant on making any decisions based on whether either conclave used their night kill or not -- unless they are informed of every jailing, they likely don't even know that they have the night kill. @Omei can confirm one way or the other, but I doubt that they are informed, or they could use the "who was in the jail" info to find members of the other conclave.

Anyway, I am getting increasingly suspicious of Teani. It's more of a hunch at this point, but she seems to be a bit too willing to hop on any train that starts forming - interestingly enough, she mostly seems to be following my votes, though I really can't figure out why. That was partially the reason why I did the Meskhenet vote without offering much reasoning, to see what Teani would do - and sure enough, she followed. I'm not really sure if this is enough to warrant a lynch, but my scum-detector is tingling.

Llok

That's probably the worst incriminating evidence I have ever heard, Ilyon. Down right weird.

Haern

Moirean said:

Also, the Indorani hit Haern. He was jailed, however, and survived.

*toot*

Just as a side question before I post anything else--am I able to vote after getting jailed/released or am I in a state of limbo? 

Teani

@Ilyon: I stated my reasons for voting on Meskhenet, rather than just jumping on a train or placing a vote.

Teani said:

Now, Meskhenet posted a long time ago, saying she would only vote if it was logical to do so. After that she made no posts until the one where she states inactivity trumps annoying people, so she voted for Desian. After this there is nothing from her again. Now, if inactive people trumps annoying people, why stay inactive? Have you found nothing in this mass of information that is worthy of speaking up about?

Vote Meskhenet

Just because it was posted after you had placed your own vote does not necessarily mean I am following your votes on this. And for this vote I simply went back to my previous vote, since Meskhenet (even after posting) didn't change my opinion of her being fishy. Sorry, but I don't see how this can be suspicious at all.

Omei

@Haern: Jailing is only effective for the night. It has no bearing on the day rounds except influencing who may or may not have survived.

Haern

@Omei: Thanks! Sorry the confusion.

As I posted before, I am less than enthused with a number of the more vocal speakers lately, so I'll be bringing my own verbal guns to bear @Ilyon and @Teani. There seems to be a running trope between both you and Teani to switch around votes in an attempt, in my view, to stir the proverbial pot. I feel that you're not bringing logic to the forefront for these votes, but rather trying to bring more groupthink into the mix with some rather ill-fated outcomes. Scum detectors are definitely a-tingling.

Teani

@Haern: I, um... I'm not sure exactly what you mean.

Haern

Teani said:

@Haern: I, um... I'm not sure exactly what you mean.

I may or may not be drinking Robitussin like water. In short, I don't trust you.

Teani

*grin*
I see. Well, I'm not working together with Ilyon, or following his votes in any conscious way. I'm still waiting to hear from Moirean why Kaeus would be a more viable option, seeing as she seems to have ruled out Meskhenet. If there's a good reason I should put my vote away from Meskhenet, I will, but I want to know what to base that decision on.

Meskhenet

To be honest, it is hard to post a response, knowing that whatever I say will be viewed as a suspicious response.

The last post was merely humor. However, I find it odd that I was put out to be lynched simply to try and see how someone else would react?

Great reasoning. Great.

Moirean

Mesk has been determined to be unlikely to be an Indorani.

 Vote remains on Kaeus. He basically said "I'm going to just sit and do nothing" as his defence, and that's completely boring to have in this game.

Ilyon

Yep, all things considered, I am inclined to agree with that.

UNVOTE: Meskhenet
VOTE: Kaeus

@Meskhenet: that was not the only reason, I still think that you are suspicious. Always suspect the silent ones, y'know.

Anyway.

Kaeus

That is not at ALL what I said...and I'm certainly not the only person who hasn't voted or voiced much right now. Being silent also has NO indication on whether a person is scum or not. At this point, I might as well take a stab in the dark, because I have no clue and I'm terrible at judging people this early on.

Vote: Ilyon

Demarcus

Unvote: Minarael

Vote: Kaeus

I'm down with that reasoning. I've already established that I think Meskhenet is more or less innocen.  Also, how is Day Round 4 "this early on"? We have 16 pages to evaluate and "judge" people as you say, Kaeus.  Only posting when posted at is really, really boring and does not progress the game at all. I'm sure you can list half a dozen other people who are sitting around doing nothing, but for now I'm willing to follow the voice of the Warden and others as they have way more information than I do, and I agree with their assessments.

Kaeus

You cant possibly have much of an assessment of me that points to anything other than being "boring" and not "progressing the game". I'm sorry I'm not as vocal, but a lot of this back and forth really has no strong basis for me to make a solid judgement. I'll stick to my random jab in the dark, vote for a rellyw if you want. I suppose I really don't mind at this point, this wasn't the same type of game I was expecting to be honest.

Llok

I have a feeling Ilyon is part of a conclave.
I also believe that Ilyon figures Teani as part of the opposite conclave.

That odd reasoning by Ilyon to vote for Teani is just to damn suspicious. It lacks any sense whatsoever and basically boils down to, "He joined a train after me, he's stalking me" which... well, havent most of the people joined a train after you, Ilyon? Why not everyone else? Why just Teani?

I would vote Ilyon but if he's conclave, I'm not sure I want to!