Mafia: The Rellyw Rebellion - Game Thread

Llok

Re: Xenia - I'm not convinced her role claim is anything more than claiming to be Rellyw to Moirean in order to establish an alliance and get some guidance. Of course it could be a double bluff but that's simply conjecture as we have nothing to go off than those few posts.

Re: Demarcus - Voting for quiet people has already lost us one important Rellyw role. I'm also not convinced about your strategy of voting for people to ping them, awaiting their explanation and then voting for the next quiet person.
A) There's only so many times people can say: "I've been at work!" "This game is confusing, I'm trying to catch up!" "I was away for a week!"
You're making votes after 10 pages based off nothing. Look at the people who have been participating and focus in on them. Of course there might be a reason you might not want to do that...

Re: Aryanne - I'm incredibly consistent.

Re: Minarael - Assume I'm innocent x

I find it odd that it's hard to start a train on Daskalos who raises all of your scum alarms. Ho hum.

Vharen

Daskalos was going to have my vote until that post from Xenia. Now I want to wait and see what she does before I decide.

And we didn't really lose a role, since the Conscript power got shuffled to someone else.

Ilyon

Mkay, so.

VOTE: Meskhenet

Inactive people are inactive, people whose only relevant post is a train hop are suspicious. Meskhenet is both.

Ilyon

Huh, why is half the post black and half white

Macavity

so wish I could vote, but I am out on scouting and cannot vote, so do not expect one from me.  However this little tripe has gotten me thinking more and more!

Minarael

Yea, I'm really not convinced yet it's worthwhile to vote for Xenia. Either she's a rellyw who made a silly comment and will probably be targetted tonight by various powers, or she's a Conclave member doin' funny business. I think I'mma hold off a day before I jump to any conclusions about her.

Meanwhile, Daskalos is triggering all sorts of bells, so I'm jumping on that train.

Vote: Daskalos

Xenia

I believe Llok's interpretation of my post best matches my motives. It was not meant to be some crazy Role claim, simply people keep saying the Rellyw need to try and communicate together, etc. etc. Anyway, yeah, I'm a Rellyw, and apparently one gone nuts. 

OK, maybe I was getting bored and also wanted to stir the pot and see how people would react >_>. 

Moirean

"Role claim" means you have a power role that you are revealing. Simply going out and saying you are rellyw - and PMing me that - doesn't really mean much. Everyone's pretending to be rellyw.

Teani

Hey, I've played two of these games before, one in which I had a role and never got to use because I was killed off first night, and the other where I didn't and managed to stay alive. This game is so different from the other two I have basically no clue what to do with the information we get in the posts and some people are not bothering with contributions. I can definitely relate to what Xenia is saying here.

Demarcus thinks it's a good thing to draw people out by voting for them. Llok claims it's a bad thing because people generally only make excuses. As for me, I'd rather they post than stay quiet, because it gives us something to analyze. If it's -only- an excuse (been working, been confused, been drinking soda and didn't want to spill!) they should expect being scrutinized and possibly lynched for not trying. If you're confused, as I am, then at least make an attempt to write something.

With the huge amount of talk some people do, isn't it quite possible that we have Indorani just leaning back, watching us all slaughter each other before stepping in to help take care of the rest?

Now, Meskhenet posted a long time ago, saying she would only vote if it was logical to do so. After that she made no posts until the one where she states inactivity trumps annoying people, so she voted for Desian. After this there is nothing from her again. Now, if inactive people trumps annoying people, why stay inactive? Have you found nothing in this mass of information that is worthy of speaking up about?

Vote Meskhenet

Esper

@Demarcus: the entire conversation for the last two pages has been about people not talking. That doesn't really offer any more information than a poke on Facebook, so I didn't see any reason to continue that redundant conversation. How do you extract something from the same rephrasing of "no one's saying anything"?

I agree with Llok that your suspicions against Daskalos didn't incur a vote against him. It strikes me that if you keep going on your current trend, you'll eventually land on someone who won't respond and try to start a train on them. The only purpose, in my mind, that might serve is to try to whittle down the number of townies, since odds are it would be a rellyw...

Toz

There isn't much to speak up about. There's sort of this odd circle of, 'this person is quiet, WHY ARE YOU QUIET!?' - sorry, I'm not entirely sure how to respond to that. Xenia's post is probably the only really worthwhile thing to respond to, and there wasn't much in the way of end-game for it. If you want people to be able to discuss something, sometimes it helps to provide prompts and/or primers that go beyond simple 'I think Meskhenet is guilty because x'. The only option there is to say 'I agree' or keep quiet, because if you defend Meskhenet or anyone else for any reason, and you are unlucky and they wind up guilty? Now everyone's eyeing you. The only logical move for everyone during the day round is to stay quiet - you can't incriminate yourself by not talking, unless we hit the odd little situation we are in where everyone who doesn't speak is presumed guilty. So now that I've given a little speech, and dusted off the ol' soapbox (so clrly not guilty since I talked!) - a question. Is it better to lynch off those who are potentially criminally quiet, or those who 'stir the pot' by trying to set up trains on quiet people? The scum benefit from leading the most, not from following - this is absolute truth. They know who needs to die for them to win. So there are two methods of countering this, that I can see - you either are suspicious of those who lead, or you attempt to lead yourself. Leading as a vanilla is risky because you have no clue (short of some power-role helps) who is who - so you might get lynched yourself. Where am I going with all of this? I have no clue! ..On a more serious note, don't assume quiet means guilty and loud means innocent. Scum does not have to play quiet to win, not at all - and I'm more afraid of a loud scum than a quiet one.

Toz

No editing, I don't re-read my posts before I submit them - if any clarification on the first few points is required, I'll be glad to expand upon it.

Minarael

Generally agree with that, I think at this point we should not be just lynching people for being quiet. Everyone I believe has spoken at this point. We should be analyzing and attempting to apply some semblance of logic to what we see. 

Being quiet or loud is not automatically suspicious. Though, being quiet does have the potential to stall the game. 

Ilyon

Thing is, we really don't have much information to build upon. There are three different groups that do not know who each other is, which means that it is entirely possible for a member of one to initiate or follow a lynch against a member of another, without even knowing. So even starting a successful lynch (which hasn't happened so far) does not absolve one of guilt. So given this, if "not saying much" is not a viable criteria to follow, what else is there?

Esper

Likewise, because there's not much to go on, people don't have much to say. So it seems like we're heading in the direction of considering a random lynch.

Esper

To add some information, here's why I haven't voted yet this round:

1) The train on Daskalos was started, as far as I can tell, randomly. 

    a) his "you'll be sorry" defense is a pretty standard one.

    b) he claims he is a new or relatively new player, increasing the odds of a standard defense.

2) Xenia admitted to be trollin'

3) Meskhenet hasn't had a chance to respond yet.

    a) in the past it seems she has been monitoring this thread and contributing when necessary (?)

    b) Voting for quiet is a random vote.

If it comes down to it I'll flip a coin between two and three, but please convince me otherwise. Campaign for your votes.

Moirean

We're not being helped here by our power roles. The only one I'm in contact with is the Warden, so our Syssin and Jailer are doing their own thing. This lack of coordination really isn't helping us out. The Warden and I know WHO the Syssin investigated, for example, but we don't know the result, so we can't even make a list of potentially clean people.

Ilyon

Well, the syssin should be sending the info in anonymous messages, that's why they are there for - the chance of fake messages is fairly minimal there as the warden can confirm if the described person was actually targeted.

Moirean

I agree, but it should be noted that the Syssin should send anonymous PMs and not posts - leave the rellyw with a leg up as far as information gathering goes.

Llok

What's the time limit on day rounds?

Damonicus

The syssin did send out an anon post last round, Periluna was a rellyw. Which means, I am guesssing, she is either a vanilla or the wildcard.  or was targetted by the Dhasan of Devotion. This round we have yet to here who the syssin got yet.

Moirean

Yeah I'm saying the Syssin shouldn't send that out as a post. They should message me/the warden. No sense in telling the Conclaves more info.

Demarcus

Re: Esper - If we don't force people to post, then we will have nothing to analyze. If you think we have nothing currently, imagine how much less we would have if these call outs with votes didn't conjure up responses?

The general gist that I'm getting here is people don't want to:
1) talk because they will get targeted
2) find anything to talk about because they don't know what's going on (or claim to)
3) find not talking suspicious
4) vote because they only see trains started as random

This in general makes this game very boring and slow. We're 4 days into this round and only have an engineer, conductor, and brakeman for the Daskalos train.

Teani hit the nail on the head, even if you're posting to say you've been busy at work, you've been moving, your dog ate your power cord, you've been reading comic books, whatever, something is better than nothing. I get that real life comes as a priority, but we've already established that inactive players don't contribute to this game in any way.

And Vharen is right, @Llok, the Conscript is alive and well. We conscripted a new one after we strung up the old one for sleeping while on watch. So we didn't lose anything but dead weight.

If we're still hung up on not voting for someone because we have a better chance of hitting a rellyw than one of the bad guys, I guess we should just keep voting no lynch until they whittle us down to the minority, then maybe we can start thinking about lynching someone.

I'm not sold on any train that has been started thus far. My varying degrees of suspicion are as follows:

Daskalos: Indorani. 60%
Xenia: Rellyw 75%
Meskhenet: Rellyw 75%

His general lack of analysis, combined with just hopping on trains without much/substantial justification and his "standard" defense of you'll be sorry has me feeling the best about his guilt over the other two.

Unvote: Esper

Vote: Daskalos

Kaeus

My general consensus of this game so far: I'm still freaking lost. Guess I'll keep my vote and see what happens. This is still an early game, and being still new to mafia (god the first one I did was WAY easier), I'm not going to have much confidence voting anywhere until later in the game (if I make it that far!)

Ilyon

Heh, I think most people are, as you say, freaking lost. Things will hopefully improve as the number of roles and factions starts declining later on.

Teani

@Demarcus: You don't even find them guilty enough to place in a Conclave though, which I find interesting. How did you come to that conclusion?

Aryanne

@Teani's defense of Xenia's trolling post rubs me wrong. Something about how she's defending her, while relating it back to her own experiences, even though what Xenia did and was saying doesn't seem to really have anything to do with her previous game experience. This just strikes me as a scum defending their own, therefore:

VOTE: TEANI

Demarcus

Teani said:

@Demarcus: You don't even find them guilty enough to place in a Conclave though, which I find interesting. How did you come to that conclusion?

The percentages there don't add up to 100%, so the other 40% or 25% are split between the remaining groups. It's also not a certainty factor, it's simply an arbitrary scale to measure my confidence in voting for someone based on what I think they might be. It is by no means an absolute scale with me saying they are most likely Indorani/Rellyw/Conclave.

How did I come to my assessments? I've re-read this thread at least half a dozen times, some pages twice that or more. I've read and am familiar with the rules, and I think I have a pretty good idea of the power roles. The Conclaves are the real wildcards in this game, so mostly I'm trying to focus on Indorani vs. Rellyw. That's not to say I don't have inklings as to who might be in a Conclave, but generally I have more information of who is not what than who is what. I have a bigger list of who not to vote for than who to vote for.

Speaking about my suspicion towards Daskalos being Indorani:

He hasn't posted much. He's clearly laying low. He's claiming he has no idea what is going on, along with at least half the other participants of the game. His posts generally don't have much substance and his votes have all been with flimsy reasoning to straight up band-wagoning. His standard defense that I don't feel comfortable with that he's brought up twice now and one is cool, but two that aren't stated similarly enough to be consistent says to me he's grasping at straws to defend himself. It's possible he's a rellyw, it's possible he's in a Conclave. Based on my observations above and my general feelings though, I would guess he's most likely an Indorani.

Minarael

I really don't agree that we don't have much to go on. Yes, the power roles are more complex, but I've managed to gather suspicions on a number of people based on their behavior. Nearly everyone has posted. There are things to analyze. People are simply being paralyzed because there isn't certainty. 

There isn't going to be.

We are going to have to take risks to win.

I'm voting for Daskalos because he has been -active- in the thread, yet said little. He's jumped on trains with not much logic. His defense was ridiculous. Because trains on him keep oddly dying even when there is more logic behind them than 'this person was quiet'. 

There are a few other people who are on my list of potential scum, but since we need to push things forward, I'm sticking to Daskalos until he's dealt with or something gives me really strong logic against someone else. 

Teani

Xenia said:

It was not meant to be some crazy Role claim, simply people keep saying the Rellyw need to try and communicate together, etc. etc. 

@Aryanne: The above thing is what I was referring to when I said I could relate to what she was saying. Not defending, relating to what someone is saying, as in being a bit confused about what to do to help. Especially since she was referring back to Llok's post being the most accurate to describe why she had thought of claiming anything. Se below:

Llok said:

Re: Xenia - I'm not convinced her role claim is anything more than claiming to be Rellyw to Moirean in order to establish an alliance and get some guidance. 

Also note that Demarcus points at three people in his post (Daskalos, Xenia and Meskhenet) and I question why only Daskalos was on the scumside of his radar and not the other two, not only Meskhenet.

Edit: Sorry sorry sorry for editing, but the quote boxes screwed up the format something awful. I have not edited any words!