Mafia: Lifers vs Darkies

Teani

Unless Setne responds and asks not to be lynched (At which point I am counting on those with more frequent connections to act) I'll go ahead and follow Periluna's suggestion. Even if Setne is a citizen, not participating at all... yeah.

Vote Xenia

Vote Setne

Arbre

I still want to take Ezalor down, but I'll jump on this train since it's logical enough.

VOTE: Macavity Xenia Ezalor Setne

Ilyon

Okay.

UNVOTE: Xenia
VOTE: Setne

Although I should say that this entire "don't vote Macavity because reasons" turns Ezalor into suspect #1, as far as I am concerned. I'm not sure if Macavity is mafia too, or if Ezalor is using him as a shield - probably the latter. Something to sort out in day 2.

Iosyne

It might be the best shot we have.

Unvote: Macavity

Vote: Setne

Moirean

Votes:

Xenia=5 (Ezalor, Piper, Ilyon, Macavity)

Macavity=4 (Teani, Alexina, Aldric)

No Lynch=4 (Xenia, Aryanne, Angwe)

Setne=6 (Esper, Periluna, Teani, Arbre, Ilyon, Iosyne)

Xenia

@Arbre, I'm tired of @Ezalor, and I ask that our Sentari look into him. I ask that the Zealot fire bomb me and let me protect myself in the night to prove my innocence. 

Assuming I live through the night (I will), then PM me the roles tomorrow. Let's just get Setne out of here cus he hasn't participated. 

Unvote NoLynch
Vote Setne

Setne

With little mafia experience, I decided to just wait for others to start things moving to get a feel for how things are done, and after thinking it over, I'm gonna go with

Vote: No Lynch

because I don't think there's enough information to make any decisions at this time.

Setne

Actually, after some consideration, I just don't have the motivation to play, sorry.

Unvote: No Lynch
Vote: Setne

Ezalor

Esper said:

Of course, a vampire or the Syssin could claim to be the "real" luminary; how do you have any way of determining which is telling the truth? In that case, you'd campaign for Xenia's death, and we'd only find out after we lynched her. That's why perhaps the best strategy is changing the RNG vote, or being persuaded by @Aryanne's defense of nolynch.

@Macavity: I think this is taking abnormally long because we've almost lynched two people already, but we keep changing at the last moment. To be honest, I think we might be hopelessly deadlocked this round, but our only other option is not posting for 24 hours, unless @Moirean makes a moderator call to end the phase for some reason.

That...is an absolute death sentence if Mafia try that. As there can only be 1 real one Mafia fake claiming a power role paints them into a corner where one of the two claimants is for sure Mafia.

The reason I posted about Macavity like that before (which I'm sure all of you have figured out by now) was that he insinuated to me that he was a Town power. Upon asking him further though he stated outright he's a vanilla Townie. Sooo that defense is gone.

I actually wouldn't mind lynching Esper at this point. I don't think he believes what he's saying and his posts are full of contradictions. But with an imposed deadline coming up there's not really any time for another vote switch, so Macavity or Setne will have to be the lynch. I'll type up my reasoning on that after this lynch is over. I actually had Macavity tell me he was considering fake claiming as the Luminary, which would have caused real havoc given that I thought he already softclaimed to me as a Town power - while his actions aren't exactly scummy (why would scum put themselves out like that), they're pretty anti-Town and destructive.  

Zealot should not waste a shot on Xenia. No one else is claiming, we can just move forward with the assumption she's the real deal.

@Moirean are we allowed to post in the thread during night time? And is there any chance Setne can be replaced with another player if he's going to quit like that?

Valenae

Vote: Setne

Esper

@Ezalor: I can point out the consistency behind my posts if you'd like, but I think since you didn't formally accuse me I will save everyone some reading, unless you'd like me to go into detail.

However, regarding a vampire approaching you as the luminary, it would unfold as so. The vampire claims to be the luminary, and since your spider sense tingled on Xenia and you have no way of verifying you encourage us to string her up. It turns out she was really the luminary, so of course you turn on the vampire who lied to you. But what reason do we have to trust you at that point?

best case: we no longer trust you, and we've lost a power role.

worst case: the vampires lose one person, but they've taken out a really important power role.

Regarding the daru, I think we do need that person to firebomb Xenia because we need verification. Since she's stated she will shield herself, the vampires would be poor at strategy to decide to target her, unless they just want to disprove her for some unfathomable reason. The only way we can be certain is if the Daru firebombs her and she survives the night. We lose one charge, but we gain a rallying point and the Daru and Xenia can start forming a cohort.

Ezalor

A 1-for-1 trade is awful for Mafia no matter what role you are trading for. And if another Luminary had claimed, I'd leave both alive. The Mafia cannot target the Luminary since the moment the real one dies their fake one gets lynched, and we can ascertain the liar as the game goes on.

As for what reason to trust me, if I was Mafia I'd just spend this entire game not posting and bandwagoning, as that is what most of the players in this game are doing. I know someone trying to take leadership and encourage activity chafes on some egos or elicits a natural response of hostility. 

In any case, even if I was Mafia, the Luminary claiming to me in a PM would ensure that I would not be able to kill them since I would be the only one who knew their real identity. So there is very little risk there in return for a huge reward.

Vigilante is one of the most powerful Town roles (and potentially most dangerous), that bullet could save Town in a lylo situation. There is no reason for the Luminary NOT to claim privately if Xenia is not the real one. I'm going to go ahead and put faith in the playerbase that if Xenia is not the real Luminary, then that person would have claimed already. No need to waste a bullet.

Esper

I don't actively distrust you (that came into the hypothetical) yet, and those are both compelling arguments. Speaking a lot makes you a target not only of being lynched but of the mafia. But like you said earlier, we're in this as a team. Sometimes the best thing to do is advance what you think is best for the town, and hope it works.

I think it's absolutely right that we need a leader. I can understand also that in some situations it would be better to reserve both charges of the Daru (that's the vigilante? I don't know all of the alternate names), but using one here gives the town a rallying point around Xenia, because then we can trust her too.

This has the added benefit that the monk can ping someone else tonight--you and I are both good candidates--and expand the trust circle to form a voting bloc. Granted, with the Bloodborn that makes it tricky, but if Xenia keeps everyone informed indirectly it forms a buffer, at least.

Piper

Unvote: Xenia

Vote: Setne

Periluna

Anyone else find it odd that after all his long speeches about how we shouldn't lynch Xenia, @Ezalor hasn't changed his vote from her...?

Ezalor

Are you worried all my Mafia friends are going to suddenly flood the vote and kill her or something?

Aryanne

Ezalor said:

[...]

As for what reason to trust me, if I was Mafia I'd just spend this entire game not posting and bandwagoning, as that is what most of the players in this game are doing. [...]

In any case, even if I was Mafia, the Luminary claiming to me in a PM would ensure that I would not be able to kill them since I would be the only one who knew their real identity. So there is very little risk there in return for a huge reward.

[...]

To the first statement: Yes, that is what some Vamps are going to do, of course. That is also what some lifers are going to do. However, if Vamps ALWAYS did expressly that, the game would go much quicker. A smart group of vamps is going to have at least one (if not two or three) people who are actively engaged in discussion and try to steer votes and opinions in their favour, developing trust and trying to cast doubt on who they know are lifers. Unlike the rest of us, they aren't guessing.

I do not see how a private PM to an unknown lifer/vamp could possibly be a saving grace for a town power role. If they died in the night:

A) We have no way of knowing they actually talked to you, so what good does that do anyone else?

They could tell you and -still- get randomly targeted anyway, at which point, supposedly you'd be the prime suspect? I'm sure you'd just claim innocence and random chance on the part of mafia and now they've either been killed or outed. How does this benefit them? One player of unknown alliance now knows who they are? Explain how this reward is huge.

Ezalor

No. In a game where -no one- is trying to steer discussion or conversation, optimal Mafia play is absolutely to do nothing and just bandwagon. Why do they need to steer discussion? The more Mafia posts, the more risk they are at to get caught. And, if you didn't notice, I was the only one trying to start and instigate discussion to force other people to as well. Without me posting this thread would just be barren, Macavity would have been lynched randomly with no discussion beyond a bunch of one line posts. Why would I possibly want to lead discussions as Mafia where, if I stayed silent, there would be -no- discussion?

For A) if they talked to me and I pretended they didn't, they could pretty much out me as Mafia in the thread.

For fair enough, but that chance is small as is.

Reward is huge because this setup (all Masons) can be completely broken as soon as a Town circle is set up. You narrow down the possible suspects to a much smaller pool and, if the real Luminary is out there, that would mean Xenia is lying which would net a Mafia lynch. And if Xenia were Mafia I have a pretty decent idea of who one or two others are. It also allows Town to move on a coordinated scale. As I said, Mafia is a game of the uninformed majority vs the informed minority, if you give Town the ability to confirm themselves and communicate privately, a big part of the Mafia advantage is gone.

Looks like deadline is in 40 minutes and no word from Moirean on replacements.

Unvote Xenia

Vote Setne

Arbre

I'm only changing my vote because Setne doesn't wanna play.  I'm going immediately back to Ezalor next round unless I have some dern good proof.

VOTE: Macavity Xenia Ezalor Setne

Ezalor

I'd love to hear why you want to lynch me.

Arbre

Arbre said:

Ezalor said:

I'm going to go ahead and say it's not a good idea to lynch Macavity for certain reasons.

This is the most suspicious post I have ever seen.

VOTE: Macavity Xenia Ezalor

NOT MY VOTE, MOI, STILL GOING FOR SETNE

Aryanne

Ezalor said:

[first paragraph cropped for size]

For A) if they talked to me and I pretended they didn't, they could pretty much out me as Mafia in the thread.

Re 'Paragraph one': Your only comments on the first page were begging us to help you train Xenia because "She changed her opinion more than once" I'll admit she seemed a bit fishy even I was suspicious, but you were adamantly trying to get us to STOP going after Macavity and START training Xenia for none of the proof you are so desperately trying to convince us we should be using. And eventually, when it seemed like your precious Macavity was at his end, you bolstered out with "NO NO NO, REALLY GUYS STOP YOU'RE NOT PLAYING THE RIGHT WAY!" until we followed YOUR train on Xenia.

Seems more like a Vamp trying to protect another vamp when staying quiet in the background wasn't working than trying to open up discussion and tactics for discussions sake. If you -really- thought discussion was as important as you claim, you should have lead with that, not only resorted to that when Macavity was near his end.

re 'For A': People can't post or talk after they've been killed. If they told you in PRIVATE, there would be absolutely no way for any of us to know they told you. If they were going to post on the thread that they told you, there would be no reason to tell you in private.

Ezalor

Ezalor said:

The reason I posted about Macavity like that before (which I'm sure all of you have figured out by now) was that he insinuated to me that he was a Town power. Upon asking him further though he stated outright he's a vanilla Townie. Sooo that defense is gone.

That's why I posted that one sentence Arbre.

As for the other, I stopped the lynch because the Macavity lynch was utterly random and generated nothing. It may be common practice in Aetolia Mafia to shoot in the dark and wait for the Sentaari but that's an utterly boring and ineffective playstyle that I really didn't want to be a part of.

Once again, since I can't seem to get that point through, getting people on Xenia wasn't my ultimate goal. It was to promote discussion and force people to make opinions and arguments (oh hey, people actually are now!). I'd be just as disappointed if I made no argument against Xenia but then everyone followed along instead of piling on Macavity.

Moirean

Sorry, sleep and great hunt distracted me. Making post now.

Moirean

OK. OMEI is now playing for Setne. Due to this substitution, I'll give you guys another day or two to get your lynch ducks in a row.

To just save me a headache, all old votes are cleared out. Discussion and reasoning and suspicions can all still remain!

Arbre

VOTE: Ezalor

Ezalor

Yeah I'm going to go ahead and say Aetolia Mafia isn't for me. You all have fun folks.

Vote Ezalor

Omei

Hello, everyone. I've just now caught up with the posts, and I want to say: listen to Ezalor. He knows what he's talking about, and everything he is saying is practical wisdom of the kind I've picked up playing this game myself. If Xenia's role claim is indeed accurate, it is in the best interests of the Daru to firebomb her tonight and discover whether that's the case; with a confirmed townie on the table, we can start organizing the game to figure out who's who, since she's effectively immune to any and all night killings and the scum won't be able to sway a vote on her without giving themselves away.

In fact, this game is actually slanted in the town's favor; it should use that. The scum's only real chance is if they manage to off the Sentaari, and even then, each turn the Sentaari stays alive is another piece of information for the townies. Granted, there's no way to confirm the Sentaari's identity, and there's still the Bloodborn to foul up 100% certainty on investigation, but the existence of an invincible Luminary still gives the town a single, surefire advantage.

For now, I withhold my vote, pending further developments.

Ezalor

As a last post, I think Esper is the Bloodborn, so you guys sort him out after I'm gone.

Periluna

Ezalor said:

As a last post, I think Esper is the Bloodborn, so you guys sort him out after I'm gone.

Why waste a perfectly good lynch if what you say is true, just because you want to quit? While I agree with @Arbre that you're suspicious, I wouldn't say I haven't agreed with you on quite a few points.

VOTE: ESPER