Mafia: Lifers vs Darkies

Ezalor

Hngh if "another" doctor is out there counterclaim to me in a PM. If I'm Mafia I won't be able to kill you or it'd look hella suspicious. If no one steps up, leave Xenia be.

Aldric

Voting not to lynch anybody during the first round only helps to bring night here faster for a civvie to be killed off. Xenia's reveal is gutsy, but understandably so if it's true. 

I've got a pretty straight-forward idea how to find out if Xenia's telling the truth: protect yourself tonight and request that the Daru uses a firebomb on you. While this would end up wasting one of the shots, it'd be the only way to know for sure. Additionally, you would be somebody that the remaining power roles could communicate through which is one hell of a civilian advantage especially so early in the game.

As for my vote, I'm not nearly as experienced as Ezalor when it comes to real mafia games, but from all of the ones I've participated in thus far on the forums we usually end up just going with a random the first round. Assuming Xenia and the Daru approve of that plan though, ushering in the next day round would give us something more to work with. Unless she's lying.. in which case we'll likely have killed our first mafia member. Yay!

I'm going to go ahead and 

VOTE: MACAVITY

on the pure basis of moving things along since he's currently the majority.

Xenia

@Aldric This was my thoughts, though I was going to ask that I be investigated. My only concern is this: If the mafia tried to kill me, along with the Daru, wouldn't I still be killed from the multi-hit? 

It depends on the rules in this game, in other ones, that has been a case. If indeed I would survive a double hit, then yes, I would ask that the Daru use this attack, and allow me to act as a medium between village and power roles. I guess it depends on how the mechanics of this particular game will run. 
I 

Moirean

Protection is absolute, no matter how many attacks are attempted on a person. Nobody has hammer tattoos, so that shield is pretty solid.

Give me a sec to update vote count (sorry was in a meeting IG).

Ezalor

I'm going to go ahead and say it's not a good idea to lynch Macavity for certain reasons.

Moirean

Xenia=6 (Ezalor, Piper, Ilyon, Angwe, Teani, Arbre)

Macavity=5 (Esper, Teani, Iosyne, Alexina, Aldric)

No Lynch=1 (Xenia, Aryanne, Periluna)

Esper

Well, that's a really ambiguous statement that has serious implications. Assuming we trust it, are we still going to operate under the idea that a nolynch vote is bad?

If we've effectively eliminated a few people, simply because of trust reasons, and we agree that arbitrary vote is arbitrary, the people who have contributed longer ago are: @Valenae, @Alexina, and @Iosyne.

Esper

Also, @Setne

Valenae

Uh yeah, prepping for a 1200 mile move and working 58 hours the week before I move is balls. 

I don't really know who to vote for because as several people have stated, this vote is largely arbitrary. Um? Usually during these rounds we go with whoever is the most vocal. While it seems inevitably illogical to pick someone is constantly contributing, we're looking for someone who could be doing the most manipulating. Reading through the posts I would say the person that fits the bill is Xenia.  

VOTE: XENIA

Angwe

Hrngh. I say we give her a chance to at least prove that she's actually the Luminary. Luminary can't protect themselves from a lynching, right? Therefore:

VOTE: XENIA
VOTE: NOLYNCH

Valenae

Nolynch only benefits mafia -that's common knowledge. If we vote nolynch then we don't even have a chance to get a mafia during the day round which guarantees the mafia an advantage in the game. If we don't pick Xenia we need to pick someone else because nolynch isn't a favorable option for us.  

Esper

Because Xenia has claimed to be the Luminary, and Ezalor seems to have reason to believe Macavity should live, I think it's best to vote for someone who doesn't really seem interested in playing as our first RNG vote.  Thus I 

VOTE: Macavity Setne

Ezalor

Once again, if you are the Luminary, do not post it in this thread. Send me a PM.

Aryanne

Valenae said:

Nolynch only benefits mafia -that's common knowledge. If we vote nolynch then we don't even have a chance to get a mafia during the day round which guarantees the mafia an advantage in the game. If we don't pick Xenia we need to pick someone else because nolynch isn't a favorable option for us.  

This logic annoys me (I know she's not been the only one to voice it, but the most recent)

No Lynch does NOT benefit Vampires.

"If we vote nolynch then we don't even have a chance to get a mafia during the day round which guarantees the mafia an advantage in the game" How does this make sense?

 We are statistically far more likely to kill off a lifer (11:16) in the first round than we are a Vamp (4:16).

The Vamps have a 11:12 chance to kill off a lifer  (they could kill the syssin, which is also beneficial to them, and sorta to us) in their night round.

By the second morning, CHANCES ARE AT LEAST ONE LIFER WILL BE DEAD. Do we really want to risk making that two when all we have to go on is "well, they spoke up the most / she started talking first / he whined the most when we trained him arbitrarity"? We started doing that, and look where it got us. We maybe-almost trained our luminary (providing she's not shooting a load of unicorns)!

While, yes, no lynch kills the already-small chance that we'll kill off a vamp, it also demolishes the FAR MORE LIKELY chance that we'll kill off one of our own on this first round before we really have any evidence or voting-pattern-proof to go with.

I feel like everyone touting "No Lynch in the first round only helps the vamps!" should be looked at with supreme suspicion, because it clearly benefits the lifers far more than the vamps.

Coupled with this: Valenae has now voted FOR the person claiming to be a key lifer role. HMM

Esper

I thought we couldn't PM roles?

Aryanne

@Esper - We can PM other players our roles, but we could also be lying about them if we do that. We aren't allowed to Copy/paste/forward/etc. the actual text/screen cap of/etc. what Moirean sent us to "prove" our roles as legit.

Moirean

Indeed. You can PM each other, talk in AIM, even send tells IG (IF IF IF people don't mind), but you can't PM the messages I sent showing the roles. Conversely, if someone doesn't want to talk out of the game, you can't force them to, though forum PMs are encouraged for coordination, since the mafia will definitely be using them.

Xenia

I would just like to say that for the record, the argument that Aryanne just made, was a much more eloquent version of what I had been trying to say, in regards to the numbers and the strategy.  I really think that we should just go with a no lynch.

Here are some things to take into consideration: 

1. @Ezalor has been leading the group, and he seems to have information. If he's not sided with the Vampires, then he would make a strong  target because in order to prove my innocence, I will be protecting myself.

2. He has indicated that @Macavity would be a poor choice, indicating that he's probably important to the city. Again, a strong candidate for the vampires to choose if this is the case, as to prove my innocence I will be healing myself. 

3.  The vigilante isn't going to be attacking a random innocent so we're not going to lose more than 1 villager in a night. However, because everyone was wanting to just random lynch and @Ezalor has seemingly been sided with the village, advocated for @Macavity, etc, there's likely to be a loss of a power role. 

I think we should either stick with no lynch for the purpose of maintaining the village pupulation, or just lynch 

@Setne because he's not participated thus far, and no point in keeping on someone who's lurking. 

Arbre

Ezalor said:

I'm going to go ahead and say it's not a good idea to lynch Macavity for certain reasons.

This is the most suspicious post I have ever seen.

VOTE: Macavity Xenia Ezalor

Ezalor

Ok. If no one is going to counterclaim Xenia, then she's our first confirmed Townie. Give it a bit to see if another Luminary steps up, and if not, everyone should send Xenia a PM roleclaiming to her. This allows us to gain two more confirmed Townies through the Sentaari and the Zealot, then the power roles can coordinate together. It also narrows the pool of possible Mafia/Serial Killer down to anyone who claimed normal Townie.

If Xenia is not the Luminary, then the real one really needs to speak up before that's set into motion.

Valenae

Aryanne said:

Valenae said:

Nolynch only benefits mafia -that's common knowledge. If we vote nolynch then we don't even have a chance to get a mafia during the day round which guarantees the mafia an advantage in the game. If we don't pick Xenia we need to pick someone else because nolynch isn't a favorable option for us.  

This logic annoys me (I know she's not been the only one to voice it, but the most recent)

No Lynch does NOT benefit Vampires.

"If we vote nolynch then we don't even have a chance to get a mafia during the day round which guarantees the mafia an advantage in the game" How does this make sense?

 We are statistically far more likely to kill off a lifer (11:16) in the first round than we are a Vamp (4:16).

The Vamps have a 11:12 chance to kill off a lifer  (they could kill the syssin, which is also beneficial to them, and sorta to us) in their night round.

By the second morning, CHANCES ARE AT LEAST ONE LIFER WILL BE DEAD. Do we really want to risk making that two when all we have to go on is "well, they spoke up the most / she started talking first / he whined the most when we trained him arbitrarity"? We started doing that, and look where it got us. We maybe-almost trained our luminary (providing she's not shooting a load of unicorns)!

While, yes, no lynch kills the already-small chance that we'll kill off a vamp, it also demolishes the FAR MORE LIKELY chance that we'll kill off one of our own on this first round before we really have any evidence or voting-pattern-proof to go with.

I feel like everyone touting "No Lynch in the first round only helps the vamps!" should be looked at with supreme suspicion, because it clearly benefits the lifers far more than the vamps.

Coupled with this: Valenae has now voted FOR the person claiming to be a key lifer role. HMM

To be honest, I skimmed over about 45% of the posts due to being in a time crunch and wanting to participate. lol I read Xenia's early posts and got the tinglies (Not in a gross way but like a 'oh holy crap, this chick is totally mafia' way). I completely missed Xenia saying she was the lumi.

 Anywho: I'll explain more about my view of the statistics tomorrow afternoon seeing as I have to be up in less than four hours but I want to highlight the fact that now Xenia has come out as being the Luminary, I expect the the vampires will see this as a pertinent threat which means that we'll likely see her killed off during the night round. If she's killed, we'll find out if she's good and if she's left alive, that will raise quite a few questions. I'm going to catch up a little more and post my vote tomorrow. 

unvote: Xenia

Macavity

do the days normally last this long on a game like this??  Seems to be moving kind of slow to me, but since its my first time playing this, its hard to compare.  

Ezalor

As Moirean pointed out, free town PMs are incredibly powerful. Actually without a Roleblocker the best Town strat probably would have been for the Sentaari to claim immediately, gain the protection of the Luminary, and have everyone roleclaim to them. But we have a power claim in the thread already that's not the Sentaari, so use Xenia as the start of the Town PM circle.

Her play -could- be a ploy to save herself and out the Luminary into the thread when she came near getting lynched (nothing to lose, why not try something risky), which is why I'd really like for the real Luminary, if it's not her, to PM me with that. Worst case, I'm Mafia, but then everyone would know I know and if you randomly keel over and die I'd be bringing a lot of heat on myself. Best case, we lynch a Mafia today (as that would mean Xenia is lying) and can set up the Town circle.

Ezalor

As for this silly no lynch argument, how do you think we could possibly generate discussion or readable voting patterns if we just no lynch all the time Aryanne? We'd start day 2 in the exact same position as day 1 except there'd be an extra dead Townie. No lynch is a bad strategy outside of mylo 99% of the time.

Esper

Of course, a vampire or the Syssin could claim to be the "real" luminary; how do you have any way of determining which is telling the truth? In that case, you'd campaign for Xenia's death, and we'd only find out after we lynched her. That's why perhaps the best strategy is changing the RNG vote, or being persuaded by @Aryanne's defense of nolynch.

@Macavity: I think this is taking abnormally long because we've almost lynched two people already, but we keep changing at the last moment. To be honest, I think we might be hopelessly deadlocked this round, but our only other option is not posting for 24 hours, unless @Moirean makes a moderator call to end the phase for some reason.

Moirean

In the interest of expediency, I'm going to step in and say that you guys have 12 hours to decide who you are killing, or it'll be a no lynch and we'll move on to night.

Moirean

Votes:

Xenia=5 (Ezalor, Piper, Ilyon, Teani, Macavity)

Macavity=4 (Teani, Iosyne, Alexina, Aldric)

No Lynch=4 (Xenia, Aryanne, Periluna, Angwe)

Setne=1 (Esper)

Ezalor=1 (Arbre)

Valenae

I don't think that anyone is really campaigning for Xenia's death anymore. I don't think we should vote for Xenia but I do think it would be prudent to strike out and have the faintest of chances at getting a vamp before what could be the Luminary is killed during the night round. Honestly, posting that you're the Lumi  is like putting a target on your back seeing that if she's not killed during the night round, people will become naturally suspicious of her and could fall prey as an assumed mafia member, or killed during the night round because she's too much of a threat to be left alive, especially with Ez's comment of rallying around her. All around its just not a good idea unless we can have her jailed and there is no jailer in this version. Whether we lynch her now or not is completely irrelevant because, unless I'm mistaken, we have no way to validate her identity until the night round and at that point the vamps have the chance to make a snack out of her. We have a 1 out of 3 chance that she's mafia and that's not enough of a favorable statistic. As it stands we have no choice but hope the vamps decide another target is more delectable and to stop discussing whether or not she's a valid target because she isn't. 

Having said that, if we want a chance to take a swing at a vamp before the night round, this will be our chance because, as dissatisfying and illogical of an answer as this may seem to be: yeah, the odds are against us getting a mafia member and yeah, it's pretty probable that we could hit one of our own but the 4/16 chance we have in hitting an enemy is hell of a lot better than the 0 we've already resigned ourselves to. So, giving the mafia a sure strike against what could be a notable character and not doing ANYTHING during the day round to, as ill-fated as it is, put a dent in the mafia's numbers is a bad strategy. As townies during the day round the best strategy we have is to read the group dynamic as best we can and select someone to go up on the chopping block. That person isn't Xenia, obviously, but it needs to be someone or we're going to be sitting on our hands. 

Teani

[Woah, it's difficult to keep up when being on a trip, working. First time playing the game and on irregular wifi connections, and lots of things to do all the time will make me slow to respond. I am checking the thread at least once a day, but might not have time for longer explanations. Just throwing that out there.]

I will keep my vote for now, mostly because I the back and forth tossing hasn't made me less suspicious, but also because I haven't found anyone else who I feel is more worthy of my lynch vote. At least not at this point.

Periluna

@Setne is probably not participating due to a horrible internet connection. Either way, I think it best to go ahead and eliminate him from the game. Although, I do agree that Ezalor is a bit suspicious. Grr.

VOTE: NOLYNCH

VOTE: SETNE