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Comments
Thoughts: Sibatti got a few votes that seemingly had random or unexplained reasoning behind them. She tends to deflect attention from herself by drawing it instead to more vocal individals, and at least one post seemed to argue for more than one side, which also serves to make her a potentially less noticed person. If we assume that Zechs is a defender and that Xenia is a Cultist, all of her votes could be considered "safe" in the sense that even though she voted for Xenia, it was at a point when a lynch seemed all but inevitable. No one I consider a possible Cultist has voted for her (except Xenia, when a lynch train on Xenia herself was reaching a peak and would keep Sibatti safe), which leads me to think she could be a Prophet candidate.
Thoughts: Pazradym is all but certainly the Sentinel.
Thoughts: Arbre talks about having a default position, and this tends to fall in line with what the majority is doing. It doesn't strike me as particularly scummy. I would think that a Cultist would try to make their way into a train closer to the middle than the end.
EDIT HERE: I'm going to change my mind on this. Arbre tends to fly under the radar and has only been called suspicious for lack of activity by people I consider the least likely to be Cultists. Xenia lists her as probably not being the Prophet. If Xenia is a Cultist, of course she would not want to draw attention to that.
Thoughts: Ooooooh boy. Xenia got off to a strong start, convincing people to go with a no lynch, but in hindsight, I think that supports the Cult more than helps the defenders, as did Ilyon. With only two Cultists at the time, if we HAD hit one, they would have been severely crippled. A smart Cultist would know that. On the other hand, losing one role would be rough, but the defenders could still find ways to adapt, like we're being forced to do now. There would have been exactly 0% chance of hitting BOTH the General and Sentinel, while we had a 1/13 chance EACH for hitting a Cultist. Then there were the debates about the Sentinel reveal prior to it necessarily being a good idea (one that continued even after the fact), the debate about Sentinel tracking being public (even if it is made public, the Cultists will just go after someone else now), and finally the whole posting about her ideas about the Prophet, which culminated in stating that the whole post was just to test a theory, without really saying what that theory was or why it ended the way it did. Now, I'm pretty sure she's not the Prophet. Too many people voted for her too quickly, and I don't think the Prophet is so expendable to the Cult that either of the regular members would risk it. Add that to the fact to her posts with Sibatti post reveal, and I think she may be Cultist #2 (with the post being a diversion tactic.)
Thoughts (Koda): I'll agree that
she'sHE'S (sorry) not the Prophet, but some clarification from Kelliara about whether the second Cultist needed to go with the Prophet to convert someone last night would be nice to know whether there was a chance she could hold that role. (NEW NEWS: ALL Cultists will visit the house of a person being converted at night. We can therefore rule out her being one of the original two.) We can't rule out her having been converted, but even if so, finding the Prophet seems like a bigger priority to stop the conversions at the moment. If she is not a Cultist now, she is likely a good target for them soon though.Thoughts: Teani has called multiple people suspicious for a variety of reasons, and been called suspicious in return. Notably, she made a recent appearance on Xenia's "possible Prophet" list. I believe quite firmly that that list does NOT contain the true Prophet, but rather, may have at least one other Cultist to find and lynch instead of the Prophet in case Pazradym thought it would be a good basis for the next night's tracking. I think her behavior in the day rounds may have made her someone worth converting (assuming Xenia is a Cultist, of course).
Thoughts: Zechs did not appear to understand how the Cult operates at the beginning of the game, which leads me to believe he was not an original member. Going with my theory that Xenia is the second original Cultist, I don't think that he would continue drawing attention to the posts where she doesn't provide the level of detail some people might like, or questions some of her suggestions. I doubt the Cult really feels the need to lynch one of their own today.
Thoughts: Zaila's situation is similar to Teani's, in my mind.
Thoughts: Obviously I can probably tell you that I'm an ordinary defender until my face turns blue, and some of you probably won't believe me, but maybe we can consider instead the fact that I was able to spot scum before. Maybe I can do it again.
CONCLUSIONS:
Me and Pazradym are not members of the Cult.
Koda is neither the Prophet nor the other original Cultist.
Koda, Teani, or Zaila seem to be the most likely third Cultists.
Arbre and Zechs are probably not the original or new Cultist, but if my theory about Xenia being a Cultist is wrong, either or both could be one.
Xenia seems to be the most likely Cultist, and if so, is most likely the second original one. The other major candidate for that specific role is Sibatti.
Sibatti is my top pick for Prophet, but others could be Arbre and Xenia.
IN ADDITION:
Sibatti and Teani are probably not both members of the Cult.
Actually. I need some clarifications. In past, when playing with a 'cult', if the leader of said cult died, the entire cult died along with it. I have been assuming this to be the case in the game. @Kelliara, clarification?
Since there was no activity around Koda last night, I am considering him as safe as Pazradym. If I look at Sarita's conclusions, this would put me as a potential convert, but I know my door was firmly barricaded and I plugged my ears well.
Consider this: if Sarita is the most recent convert, she is dismissing Arbre and Zechs. One of these might be a real Cultist. She is also putting Xenia in a Cultist position. In the situation we are in now, where we need the Prophet killed or we're done, proclaiming someone as a Cultist only could keep them alive.
At the same time she is pointing towards Sibatti as Prophet, something I'm now quite buying. I'm still very much leaning towards Xenia.
As for why a member of the Cult would name anyone else, even the Prophet? Let me walk you through the scenario that I envisioned. Sibatti was not getting a lot of attention overall, although Xenia did mention her this round. Xenia, on the other hand, had lots of people posting against her, and as soon as one vote came in, she was correct in thinking that a train would soon form on her. So she could vote for Sibatti, knowing that most people had probably already formed opinions and would vote Xenia anyway. Later, assuming Xenia was lynched and was found to be a Cultist, we could look at who she claimed to find suspicious, and there would immediately be some people who would go ahead and think EXACTLY what is being asked now: Why would she name a fellow Cultist, especially the Prophet?
Mind you, I'm not saying that the scenario above is why I think Sibatti could be the Prophet. I have other reasons in the post above that I don't need to repeat here. I also had other people listed as possible Prophets. All I was saying for Sibatti specifically is that we shouldn't rule it out.
I'm just checking our numbers a little here, and this is what it looks like to me:
There are currently 3 cultists and 5 defenders.
If we lynch a defender, we're screwed. This would bring us to 3C v 4D into the night round. This makes the morning numbers 4C v 3D, if they convert someone, or 3C v 3D if they kill a power role.
However, if we kill a Cultist, even if it is not the Prophet, we are not completely doomed. In that case, we would have 2C v 5D going into the night. The outcome of such a night would mean 3C v 4D, if they convert, or 2C v 3D if they kill.
Sure, getting the Prophet is still our best option. From what I understand, killing the Prophet means that the Cult can only kill, not convert. (That's at least what general knowledge was provided by Kelliara in the initial post).
With that in mind, I don't think we actually -have- to pinpoint the Prophet, just as long as we don't accidentally strike down one of our own. What are your thoughts on this, mister Sentinel?
We would need to continue perfect lynches from today on out, until the cult has been purged from our society. Sorry but I really dont like those odds. So yes its possible, but our window is rapidly closing, and its making me more than a little uncomfortable.
Omei gives the corpse of a headless cadaver to you.
Omei offers you a quick wink.
Are you still leaning towards Zechs?
Vote: Xenia
Xenia - Zechs, Koda, Arbre (3)
Sibatti - Xenia (1)
5 votes needed to lynch.
Shadows lengthen as the day drags on...
Cute-Kelli by @Sessizlik.
I've called out @Sibatti and nobody has voted for her beyond myself. If she is the prophet, then it makes sense that none of the cultists would be voting for her because she is so integral to their goal. @Koda was definitely not in the cult last night and therefore not the prophet, so there's no point in voting for him. @Pazradym is our uncontested Sentinel. @Sarita has given some strong observations that definitely align her with the defenders. @Teani started a vote train on me but instantly removed her vote when it was requested to slow the train down. An action I would not suspect a cultist to take. @Zaila has been relatively silent in the wake of the recent discussions, unusual for her behavior so far, but she did also slow the lynch down in order to provide more time. @Zechs remains as suspicions of me as he has from the start, and still seems generally confused and is either that, a confused defender, or the prophet with a strong smoke and mirror game. I think @Arbre is probably in the cult, but not the prophet, so not really worth voting on at this time.
Based on the actions and discussion from today, I still think @Sibatti has a strong chance of being our prophet. I am wary of Arbre, Zechs and to a lesser degree, Zaila.
Xenia - I feel like she has done the most finger-pointing. This either means she is a lonely, plain old defender with nothing better to mull over, or she is a cultist trying to get us to look in certain directions. If she is a cultist, I expect one of the folks she pointed at in that first barrage is probably a fellow cultist (would be a good tactic to deflect suspicion of collaboration should they be found out) and the other two are innocent. Knowing I am innocent, to me, that means Sibatti or Teani. Since she ultimately voted for Sibatti, then IF Xenia is cult, I would think Teani is quite likely also cult, but not Prophet.
Teani - She has been relatively quiet (comparatively to some of us), but she hasn't been wholly absent. However, she was the one to suddenly halt the lynch vote on Xenia when it became a threat that she would be truly lynched.
Sibatti - The only lingering vote on her is from Xenia. There seems to be some general 'maybe too quiet and not considerate enough' suspicion, but that same aspect could be applied to Arbre and Koda - and I feel reasonably confident that Koda isn't a cultist (probably) yet, so this alone just isn't enough to me think she has been up to dirty dirty deeds.
My focus in reading through everyone was trying to find anyone that seemed in any level of cahoots. The best I can find is Xenia and Teani. Since I don't think that Xenia is the prophet (too loud), and I don't think she would have directly called the prophet into attention, then IF Xenia is a cultist, then I think Teani is also likely a cultist. The day has started to grow long, and I fear the day ending with no lynch and us waking tomorrow with one fewer defender and only minimal additional information to work with.
As such, I'm going to go slightly against my own gut and vote for Xenia because no one else stands out to me enough. So, I guess it isn't ENTIRELY against my gut, but until all this lengthy back and forth I just wasn't convinced.
Vote: Xenia
the cult is voting for me, no doubt. And since I'm on the chopping block and it looks like my fellow defenders are about to allow shadow to be cast from the light. So what the hell, retribution vote!
<font color="red"> vote: Zechs </font>
Vote: Xenia
There was little more to be said, and without much fuss, she was hoisted by her neck into the nearest tree, where she glared outwards, even as her life slipped away.
Needing answers, the Defenders took to her home, ransacking it, turning it over, but finding nothing to indicate any affiliation to the Cult. Indeed, there was naught but her notes and journals of those she was suspicious of being Cultists, and her resons why.
With the sun setting, the remaining Defenders returned to their homes and posts, realising that their chances to stop the Cult was becoming increasingly slim.
Xenia has been lynched by the Defenders. She was a loyal Defender.
It is Night 3.
Night roles, PM me your actions, or if you wish to do nothing.
Cute-Kelli by @Sessizlik.
...and yet, in one corner of the city is an odd smell. Crisp and acrid, like ozone. As the Defenders begin to gather, it takes only a few minutes to track down the source, a short street near to the eastern edge of the city, on the paths leading down towards the beach.
The air hangs electric-- literally. Stray sparks crackle and crawl along what's left of the street, twist here and there through the air, and even deliver a few sharp shocks as more Defenders press into the street to investigate.
The street stones have been torn up, as though lifted from beneath by some unknowable force and thrown towards something.
And perhaps most disturbingly, the shadows-- Even in the morning sun, the light in the street is muted, as though every beam is having to struggle to reach its way in. Tendrils of shadow slither across the ground, writhing angrily towards and around a corpse sprawled in the center of the great mess. A staff, black as the void itself has fallen to the ground nearby.
Any Defender worth their salt can see what happened: While the battle raged on in one direction, the victim was slain from behind by a blow to the head with something heavy, and blunt.
Finally, the corpse is turned over to reveal the blank, glassy eyes of @Teani.
It is Day 4
The Sentinel is alive.
The Prophet is alive.
There are 4 Defenders remaining.
4 votes are needed to lynch.
Cute-Kelli by @Sessizlik.
Turns out I should have stuck with my gut and pushed a little harder on my opinion. Zechs visited Teani last night. Given the circumstances, it seems pretty clear they're at least part of the cult, possibly even the leader.
Omei gives the corpse of a headless cadaver to you.
Omei offers you a quick wink.
Vote: Zechs
Vote: Zechs
VOTE: Zechs
Omei gives the corpse of a headless cadaver to you.
Omei offers you a quick wink.
With the sciomancer gone... I don't have a lot of hope for the morning, but I think if the cult is smart and willing to risk it, they won't go after him, because that'll only reduce the number of defenders by one when they could instead grow their number - oh, crap, unless Zechs is the prophet. Hmmmmm! I don't know. He still seems too bombastic for a prophet for me... But if he is the prophet, then I figure Paz is lost for sure... If NOT! Then we might have hope, still.
However, I am the sentinel. I didn't say anything until now (I kind of did early in) knowing that Paz was lying in order to get the sciomancer's help. However, I thought Paz's shield was actually a shield for me.
Now, he's making his final move. Don't let him convince you otherwise!
I actually stealth visited @Pazradym last night and my suspicions are confirmed; he in fact visited Teani last night.