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As far as were we go, if the defenders are to have any shot at all in the future we /have/ to find and eliminate the cult leader and soon. As long as thier conversions are up, and especially now that we have removed the shapeshifter as well, we can only get more and more behind as days progress until the leader dies. Even if we successfully lynch a cultist everday, we still loose in the long game since that just breaks us even.
Omei gives the corpse of a headless cadaver to you.
Omei offers you a quick wink.
I still agree that Xenia's insistence was a bit almost brutish, but I think there's just as much room for a cult leader/scum to have been on that train of people that fell behind her so quickly if she isn't one.
My call for the Sentinel to step forward was simple: I have nothing to offer the defenders than my mind. So long as it is sound and uninfluenced by the cult, it is yours. Nobody was talking, things were feeling grim and I wanted a clear plan of action and leadership. For that, I looked to our Sentinel and Sciomancer. They are better equipped than I to lead against this cult.
In my silence, I took the time to reflect upon how things currently stand. I'll offer my thoughts below:
- 6 defenders
- 3 cultists
- 1/5 chance Sciomancer dies tonight
- Koda is not the prophet
Based on those conclusions, I will take the chance that Koda is sided with the defenders and trust his and Pazradym's future direction.@Koda, in defense to myself, all I can say is every action I take is in the best interest of the defenders.
Also hoping for a lot of discussions so we can try to decipher who might be who.
- Pazradym
- Koda
- Zechs
- Arbre
- Sarita
I think it's likely our prophet is most likely one of the following people: @Teani, @Zaila, @Sibatti.If others disagree with this list, I wish to hear what you've to say.
Teani? For what?
I disagree with your list because you haven't supplied anything to base it off of...
As for my reasonings, I want to zero in on the prophet, sure if we get one of the convert cultists we diminish their numbers, but the prophet is the primary target. Pazradym claims to be the Sentinel without any counter claim. The chances of such are slim given what I know of our community. You are zealous and obstinate and are as Syssin as they come in that regard. Koda was watched and did not leave his house. I know I am not the prophet. Arbre and Sarita may not be true defenders, but their lack of involvement leads me to believe they're probably not the prophet. By this reasoning, we are left with Teani, Zaila and Sibatti. These three have regularly spoken up and voiced their thoughts without necessarily making any waves.
Were I a prophet, I'd want to be memorable without drawing too much attention, considering my goals occurred in the evening. In my opinion, those three people fit that description.
Could possibly be you slipping a few Cult friends under the radar now that you've got something of a following?
Without me trying to remember, who was it that started the attack on Serrice originally?
Omei gives the corpse of a headless cadaver to you.
Omei offers you a quick wink.
Of course, now that we know she wasn't actually one of them, that does change my feelings a bit. Granted, I'm glad we only have one threat at night rather than two now, but if she had been part of the Cult rather than acting alone, we could at least have guessed at who wasn't the second Cultist based on earlier voting behavior.
As for secret meanings in individual posts, it depends. If the posts don't have any names in them, they will probably not tell much. However, a post like Xenia's, with speculations on who might and might not be a Defender? That could say a lot, as can the reactions that follow.
In my book, I have three safe people, and those are myself, Pazradym and Koda.
I'm keeping my watch on Xenia - for her call to make the Sentinel say who he's watching. That's a bad move. Also, I daresay "all I can say is every action I take is in the best interest of the defenders." could be something the Prophet might say to those they wish to convert.
While I'm flattered by Zechs' support, I'm wary that he might be trying to set up a show for the galleries. If both he and Xenia are both Cultists, it would be an easy thing for him to say "I've been against her for a long time" if we were to kill Xenia, making him seem reliable.
I'm willing to test a theory.
VOTE: Xenia
I was pretty confident Xenia was with us early on after she backed the wisdom of starting with a no-lynch, but this lazy finger-pointing plus the bad suggestion on the Sentinel's call - especially when coupled with the loud insistence that he expose himself is definitely making me think twice. While I am VERY glad we managed to nab the shapeshifter last time, we couldn't have known so confidently that would happen and I'm still reasonably worried the sciomancer will fall victim to an unsuccessful conversion attempt and Paz will only have one more day with us!
I don't know that I'm wholly convinced Xenia is the prophet, I would expect her sort of noisy behaviour to be more indicative of a lackey than the big bad (assuming she's trying to convert us to the light at all).
I am more suspicious of the quieter crew, myself, but as Teani, my "safelist" is really only the same three "myself, Koda and Paz"
@Teani has lingered with her accusation for some time and nobody joins her. Maybe she's a cultist acting on her own, but the chances are she's more likely a defender trying to figure things out. @Zaila's been pretty solid with her thought process, but I grow wary because there is not much initiation of action provided beyond voting for Zechs on the first day.
There has been little voting history to go on, and even fewer people speaking to pick apart, those who do are. Naming those three people before was an experiment that yielded less information than I'd have liked, but leads me to do the following.
Vote: Sibatti
Vote: Xenia
Going to stick with my gut and:
Vote: Xenia
Vote: Xenia
Omei gives the corpse of a headless cadaver to you.
Omei offers you a quick wink.
Vote: nobody
Vote: Nobody
So this is going to be a very long post. Bear with me. Some notes before I begin: I put the names in the order that they appeared in the first post, so don't try to read into that. My timelines include the things I considered relevant for my thoughts. I have thoughts on who the Sciomancer might be, but I am deliberately leaving them out because the Cult doesn't need any extra ideas. Some timeline events may only appear in one person's list even if it involves two people to keep the post shorter.
Sibatti: Received one vote from Ilyon day 1 (defender). Posted following Zechs day 2 to say she believes he was not "feigning innocence." Received a vote from Serrice (Shapeshifter) who said she was looking for quieter people. Posted (post Pazradym reveal) to tentatively support Pazradym and Xenia. Fourth on the day 2 Serrice lynch train. Fifth person on the Xenia vote train, citing support for Koda. In the same post, she expressed suspicion of Teani and Sarita. Rescinded vote at Pazradym's request for more time.
Thoughts: Sibatti got a few votes that seemingly had random or unexplained reasoning behind them.
Pazradym: Expressed concern that lynching in the first day will result in a role or defender rather than scum being killed. Fourth on day 1 no lynch. Posted day 2 with speculation about the only paths for defenders winning, eventually concluded that the Sentinel needed to reveal self to have a chance and asked for anyone with other theories to speak up. Later posted to reveal self as the Sentinel, having waited so long to give others the chance to make false claims or anonymous notes. Claimed to have tracked Karhast at night, learning that he visited Serrice. With Karhast dead that same night, nothing could be learned from him. Posted stating that he would not say who was being tracked in advance. On day 3 posted to state that he tracked Koda and learned nothing except that she was not one of the original two Cultists. Requested after five Xenia votes that more voting be held off in favor of discussion which he could not have the time.
Thoughts: Pazradym is all but certainly the Sentinel.
Arbre: Did not vote on day 1, but did post. Sixth and final person on the day 2 Serrice lynch train. On day 3, posted to say that she was becoming suspicious of Xenia.
Thoughts: Talks about having a default position, and this tends to fall in line with what the majority is doing. It doesn't strike me as particularly scummy. I would think that a Cultist would try to make their way into a train closer to the middle than the end.
Xenia: Initiated no lynch train on day 1. Later in the day (after Zaila) made a post with chances of various outcomes of a day lynch. Another post mentioned wanting future strategies, specifically mentioning the Sentinel stepping forward. Ilyon respnded by disagreeing with the no lynch vote, presenting a pro/con list, and calling Xenia suspicious for being serious about the idea. Received a vote from Karhast (General) along with his post discussing exactly what various roles can learn and their limitations. Posted in response acknowledging flaws in her logic due to misunderstanding. On day 2, goes back to stating that the Sentinel should reveal himself for protection, as initially posted in Day 1. Also started a belief that scum would have joined the day 1 no lynch train. Posted later in day 2 with possible night outcomes to encourage the Sentinel to speak up (used Cabalist as a role title where she should have used Sciomancer). Posted after Teani to clarify that she meant Sciomancer for the role title in the post where she used the wrong one. Posted to disagree with Teani about Serrice and that Zechs is "an overly paranoid defender." Responded to Sibatti's post Pazradym's reveal post that she is suspicious of anyone who quickly supports her because it might made her a target for the Cult at night. Later became the second on the day 2 Serrice lynch train, but started in the same post that she is still suspicious of Sibatti. Posted supporting Zaila's Sentinel tracking poll idea. Posted early in day 3 after some voices (Zechs, Koda) were raised against her that all of her posts were made as attempts to help the defenders. She stated that does not believe Koda can be the Prophet. Posted again later with a list of who she believes is or is not the Prophet. Following a challenge post by Zechs, she provided a bit more detail about each person on the list. Posted again claiming that the entire list was an experiment, and stated that Teani is now likely a defender, though she is wary of Zaila. Initiated vote on Sibatti in the same post.
Thoughts: Ooooooh boy. Xenia got off to a strong start, convincing people to go with a no lynch, but in hindsight, I think that supports the Cult more than helps the defenders, as did Ilyon. With only two Cultists at the time, if we HAD hit one, they would have been severely crippled. A smart Cultist would know that. On the other hand, losing one role would be rough, but the defenders could still find ways to adapt, like we're being forced to do now. There would have been exactly 0% chance of hitting BOTH the General and Sentinel, while we had a 1/13 chance EACH for hitting a Cultist. Then there were the debates about the Sentinel reveal prior to it necessarily being a good idea (one that continued even after the fact), the debate about Sentinel tracking being public (even if it is made public, the Cultists will just go after someone else now), and finally the whole posting about her ideas about the Prophet, which culminated in stating that the whole post was just to test a theory, without really saying what that theory was or why it ended the way it did. Now, I'm pretty sure she's not the Prophet. Too many people voted for her too quickly, and I don't think the Prophet is so expendable to the Cult that either of the regular members would risk it. Add that to the fact to her posts with Sibatti post reveal, and I think she may be Cultist #2 (with the post being a diversion tactic.)
Koda: Voted for Karhast (General) on day 1 for attempting to deflect attention from the Shapeshifter (now known to have been Serrice). Posted day 2 with a reminder that there is not a guarantee of the Sentinel safety if they come out. Second on Xenia day 2 train. Post Pazradym reveal, posted to state that she believed it would have been safer for the Sciomancer to have a public reveal since that person could protect himself every night. On day 3 after Xenia's post with more details, stated that she did not know about Arbre and Sarita were on the list (possible Cultists, but not the Prophet.) Third person on the day 3 Xenia vote train.
Thoughts: I'll agree that she's not the Prophet, but some clarification from @Kelliara about whether the second Cultist needed to go with the Prophet to convert someone last night would be nice to know whether there was a chance she could hold that role. We can't rule out her having been converted, but even if so, finding the Prophet seems like a bigger priority to stop the conversions at the moment. If she is not a Cultist now, she is likely a good target for them soon though.
Teani: Second on day 1 no lynch train. Posted following Zechs day 2 saying that he is either stupid or intentionally being misleading. Posted a mention of Xenia using the wrong role title for the Sciomancer. In the same post (pre Pazradym reveal) expressed something feeling "off" about Serrice. Posted to express doubts about Xenia and Zechs, followed by Koda if she changes her mind about Zechs. Third on day 2 Serrice lynch train, post Pazradym reveal. Initiated a day 3 vote train on Xenia to "test a theory". Suggested that she and Zechs could both be Cultists. Rescinded vote at Pazradym's request for more time. Posted to suggest that Xenia could still be the Prophet and Sibatti a Cultist who Xenia is willing to throw "out there for us to kill".
Thoughts:
Zechs: Did not vote on day 1, but did post. Voted for Xenia day 2 for requesting that the Sentinel come forward. Received a post of support stating that he was probably not scum from Serrice (Shapeshifter). Posted on day 3 shorter after it begins expressing concern about Xenia and Pazradym and the way the reveal happened. After Pazardym posted, Zechs rescinded some concerns about Pazradym, but maintained that he is concerned about Xenia and wants a plan for finding the Cult. Posted to disagree with Xenia's list of who might be the Prophet citing a lack of detail. Posted to clarify that he has felt suspicious of Xenia "from the beginning". Second on the day 3 Xenia vote train.
Thoughts: Zechs did not appear to understand how the Cult opperates.
Zaila: Third on day 1 no lynch. After posting, Ilyon (defender) switched his vote from Sibatti to her. Later in the day, made a post with numbers of possible outcomes with a no lynch vote following the night round. Voted for Zechs day 2 for "feigning innocence." Posted in defense of Xenia for starting the previous day's no lynch train, but disagreed with the call for the Sentinel to step forward. Posted to request information from the sentinel (implication that this would be through an anonymous message). Fifth in the day 2 Serrice lynch train (post Pazradym reveal). Posted to suggest that night target be publicly picked for the Sentinel to track in the same post. On day 3, posted to express doubts about Xenia.
Thoughts:
Sarita: Did not vote on day 1, but did post. Named as suspicous "lack of contribution" by Xenia on day 2. Defended self as posting the same number of times as Arbre and Koda. In the same post, supported the Sentinel revealing self. Initiated lynch train on Serrice day 2 (pre Pazradym reveal). Posted arguing against Zaila's Sentinel tracking poll idea.
Thoughts: Obviously I can probably tell you that I'm an ordinary defender until my face turns blue, and some of you probably won't believe me, but maybe we can consider instead the fact that I was able to spot scum before. Maybe I can do it again.
I will point out that I've been leery of Xenia before even voting officially, and that I do believe if I was theoretically converted the Sentinel would have seen somebody visiting me for that to have happened, so.
Will I be an easy target for the Cult tonight? Sure, probably. But there are bigger fish for them to fry. What's a citizen when they've got a chance to catch somebody bigger? I guess we'll see.
Also I'm a he but that's neither here nor there!
This means if the Sentinel is tracking one of them, they'll see that THAT CULTIST ONLY was targetting someone.
The Sentinel WILL NOT see if the person they were tracking was targetted.
Cute-Kelli by @Sessizlik.
To defend myself:
Alright, first off, thank you all for your patience. ((Got caught in the meeting that would never end at work)) Fortunately for me, Sarita did and amazing job summing up events so far so I can get off easier now and be lazy by just expressing my concerns, heh.
So here goes, while it is still possible, I find it extremely unlikely that Xenia is the Prophet at this point. Her advice and insight so far have been pretty much spot on, and it seems unlikely, though I will admit not impossible that the prophet would do such. The one thing I would consider glaring is the want for me to tell everyone who I would be scouting each night. However given my experience so far, I don't believe it was malicious. Rather, the one constant I have noted about Xenia is she is always poking for information, and I believe that exactly what that was. That being said I am still about 50/50 on her being cult now, if only because if /I/ were the prophet she'd probably have been my first target for conversion.
Also, its been brought up already, but I must express the severity of the red flags that just went up at that vote chain. We have so far been a very slow to act group for the most part, and for us to have reached so close to the vote threshold that quickly, without myself (as the one for sure confirmed defender) having voted makes me leery. As the needed votes is only 1 less than the totally number of defenders currently alive I find it hard pressed that all the defenders would have come to the exact same decision so quickly. That leaves me with only that the cult got into the vote chain. Meaning one of a few options, 1.) Xenia is a cultist and is being used as a scapegoat to "prove allegiance" of the rest of the cult to the town, or 2.) She is still a defender and the cult saw the chain forming as an opportunity to remove a threat. I'm leaning more towards the second currently as the first would be hard to coordinate, but the possibility is there of course. either way I propose a good hard look at the voters.
On the subject of Koda, while its fair to confirm he was not cult as of last night, despite his most recent assurance there is unfortunately no way for me to ascertain if he was the target of conversion last night or not. This /should/ have been apparently after the first night when I knew nothing of Karhast's death until it was revealed to everyone in the morning despite my seeing his actions that night. This being said even if Koda were converted, and I'm not saying I think he was, he shouldn't be our target for today anyway. We really need to hit the Prophet now for us to have any chance of saving the town, we have perhaps one, /maybe/ two more days to get them or its death by attrition.
I still don't have any hard evidence of who to look at as the prophet currently, but my gut has been suspicious Zechs as cult for some reason for a while now. Not enough to cast a vote just yet, but I can't shake the feeling.
Omei gives the corpse of a headless cadaver to you.
Omei offers you a quick wink.
While I want to respond to Paz, I just want to point out a subtle and yet frightening trend throughout all of this: Xenia called for a no vote early which ended up wounding us severely on the first day, proceeded to call out several people as likely being members of the cult without any rationale or reasoning to back up those accusations, and has now recanted attempting to say "oh, yes... this is what I wanted all along. Discussion..." right as the voting began against her.
Each of these steps have all benefited the cult at a strategic and tactical level.
Still, even going to the analysis each of you has pointed out the significant likelihood of Xenia either being a "regular member" (is that something you become when in a cult?) OR the prophet manifest.
My vote stands and, in seeing each of these posts, it confirms this bad feeling from the beginning and it has stuck without me throughout because you all have them as well.
@Pazradym - I admit that I am passionate but it's been about one thing that many of us seem to agree on. Beyond that, there are far more individuals who raise a concern. I have stayed true to my singular accusation and recanted as is just and true (with you as the sentinel).