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There are presently 10 Defenders, 2 cultists and one shapeshifter.
If we kill someone with the zero information we have, there is an extremely high chance that we will kill a defender (10:13 vs 3:10 to kill a baddie). In the night, the shapeshifter will ALSO kill someone, and they are most likely to also kill a defender (9:11 chance if we do lynch someone) and then tomorrow, we will probably awaken tomorrow with:
7 defenders, 3 cultists and one shapeshifter.
If we DON'T kill someone tonight, tomorrow we'll either have
8 defenders, 3 cultists and one shapeshifter (most likely)
10 defenders, 1 cultists and one shapeshifter
9 defenders, 2 cultists and one shapeshifter (if the cultists convert one but one of the cultists gets axed by the shifter)
10 defenders, 3 cultists and NO shapeshifter
And tremendously more information to work off of.
I see no reason that killing someone with no information benefits us defenders. I keep my vote of no lynching and will probably be looking pretty hard at those trying to make it sound like somehow a kill today is likely to be beneficial. Lynching someone today is just tremendously beneficial to the cultists.
We've a:
- 15% chance of lynching the cult
- 8% chance of lynching the shapeshifter
- 23% chance of lynching either of the two
- 23% chance of lynching our most powerful Defenders
- 69% chance of lynching a loyal Defender.
It's true, we can not allow the cult to grow and the only way I know to start a discussion is to offer a course of action. I've never been a fan on targeting someone blindly so of course i choose not to lynch.I certainly want to ensure our Sentinel does not somehow find themselves on the chopping block. Assuming our Sentinel remains safe today, I wonder how they will be able to distinguish between our Shapeshifter and Carnifex and the Prophet and Sciomancer?
I say this Defenders, let us safeguard and prepare for the questions to come now, rather than squabble who to blindly kill today. As controversial as this may be, I believe our best bet is for the Sentinel to step forward now so that the Sciomancer may know whom to protect.
With this happening, the Sentinel will be able to distinguish the Prophet's night activities from the Sciomancers, leaving only the Shapeshifter and Carnifex difficult to distinguish between.
(font color="red")Vote: Nobody(/font)
Nobody - Xenia, Teani, Serrice. (3)
Zaila - Ilyon (1)
Karhast - Koda (1)
7 votes needed to lynch.
Cute-Kelli by @Sessizlik.
(I just couldn't get the color to work right)
Nothing to see here, carry on.
Cute-Kelli by @Sessizlik.
Nobody - Xenia, Teani, Zaila, Serrice. (4)
Zaila - Ilyon (1)
Karhast - Koda (1)
7 votes needed to lynch.
Cute-Kelli by @Sessizlik.
***VOTE: NO LYNCH***
Omei gives the corpse of a headless cadaver to you.
Omei offers you a quick wink.
Cute-Kelli by @Sessizlik.
FoS: Xenia
I had assumed that nolynch suggestion to be just a trap, akin to the last time, but apparently Xenia is actually serious, and so here we are. For the benefit of all, I will put things into bullet form:
Advantages of a nolynch vote:
- a town member does not die on day 1
Disadvantages of a nolynch vote:
- a mafia member cannot possibly die on day 1
- the serial killer does not die on day 1
- There is no vote train to deduct information from
- The mafia + serial killer decide how things proceed
- We'll most likely arrive to day 2 with no new information to work with
It is true that the chance of hitting scum is 23%, but with nolynch, the chance of hitting scum is 0%. The mafia isn't going to shoot itself out of pity. I guess we could hope for the serial killer or the vigilante to win the game for us, but eh.
We do have a rather role-heavy town, which tilts the balance in our favor, but, what information exactly do you expect to have on day 2 that you did not have on day 1? If the investigator and tracker relay info through anonymous notices, the cult can do the same with false messages. At most one of them can step up openly and be protected. And as long as the Prophet lives, any investigation about town status is worth diddly squat, as the confirmed townie could be converted the next (or even the same) day.
So, to sum things up, you propose that we do nothing, in hopes that the investigator blindly stumbles into a mafia member. Doesn't sound like such a great approach to me, but then again, I'm not a cult member.
Incidentally, the Sentinel is a tracker, you probably meant the General (investigator).
Oh, in case anyone is unaware, FoS means Finger of Suspicion, used to denote someone whom the poster suspects of being mafia, but not strongly enough to warrant a vote (yet).
What we might need is for one of the power roles to step forward, but that should be done tomorrow, since there's no point in exposure today. It would be nice if more people did speak up though, but that's not always the case in these games, I've noticed.
Consider the Sentinel. The only person they can confirm is the Carnifex, since they leave a body trail. If they see a random person visiting another at night, what does that even tell them? They could be the cult leader, maybe. They could be the Sciomancer. They could be the General. Who's to say? A moment's thought is enough to think of this, but you raise the Sentinel as if they are foolproof - suspicious. For all I know, your plan was to root out the Sentinel and blindly kill whomever they notice sneaking off first.
And the General, then. They're a very different asset in a game like this: people who turn up innocent one day can very well become Illuminai the day after. On the very likely chance that they investigate an innocent, their time was essentially wasted; the next night might have that same person get converted to a cultist. Unable to really confirm people for being innocent, the General has to rely on hopefully hitting scummers just to be lucky.
And last of all: the more we wait the more confusion is going to happen. As the game goes on, it doesn't suddenly become 'clear' who the Illuminai are; people will be converted, the Illuminai will get a trust advantage, and things get messy. I advocate voting now, rather than tomorrow, and I'm going to go right ahead with that:
Vote: Xenia
For leading the town down all the wrong paths.
Nobody - Xenia, Teani, Zaila, Serrice, Pazradym. (5)
Zaila - Ilyon. (1)
Karhast - Koda. (1)
Xenia - Karhast. (1)
7 votes needed to lynch.
Cute-Kelli by @Sessizlik.
Don't take too much longer.
Cute-Kelli by @Sessizlik.
As for the 'Nobody' vote, I'm open to swaying my vote, though nobody strikes me as voteworthy yet. If there's a scum train, it is likely within the Nobody voters.
I think Ilyon's a defender. Unsure about everyone else.
One thing is clear, this round will end if we don't make a concise decision. Karhast is voting me because I tend to speak candidly and provide enough information to be picked apart.
You ask me, that's a characteristic of a Defender. If you've nothing to lose, why not speak up? If I was lynched today, the Defenders would find they shot and missed.
Vote: No lynch.
In the end, however, the Defenders dispersed, either to sleep, or to man their posts for the night, or carry on with other business, determined to solve the mystery tomorrow.
Night roles, PM me your actions, or if you wish to do nothing.
Cute-Kelli by @Sessizlik.
Cute-Kelli by @Sessizlik.
It would seem in the night the streets of Esterport became a battleground, and while most of the city rested, a small war was waged.
Blood and scorch marks stain the stones underfoot, drawing the first horrified, curious investigators to the scene at hand.
@Karhast is sprawled in the middle of the street, eyes wide with what must be shock. The cause of death seems to be odd, there's not a single mark on his body, and he seems to have been simply struck down.
...on his finger is a plain ring, seemingly made from pure shadow.
The battle didn't end there, though...
The trail of blood, the scorch marks, scrapes on nearby walls from swung weapons that didn't strike home leads only a short distance away, where there's a second body.
Battered, burned and bloody, @Lehar sits slumped against the wall, heavy armour visible beneath her cloak, sword still locked in a vice-like grip in her hand-- the weapon is old and heavy, plain and unadorned, save for a single void-black gem that has been sunken into its hilt. The woman herself stares outwards with the empty gaze of the dead, having finally succumed to her wounds sometime in the night, features frozen in a mixture of grim determination and satisfaction.
In another part of the city, a woman begins screaming, having stumbled upon a grizzly scene...
A mangled body has been found. Ripped apart, and devoured until it is little more than scraps of meet on claw and tooth scarred bones. It's difficult to tell who the poor soul was, but a particularly brave onlooker searches through the victims pockets, finding effects that reveal it as @ilyon, torn apart at his post in the night.
There is much left to be done in Esterport today.
There are cultists to root out, still. And the rumours of a man-eating monster prowling the city have proven true.
Perhaps worst of all, the Defenders numbers are weakened, having lost two of their number, and an ally in the space of a single night...
The Sciomancer is alive.
The Sentinel is alive.
The Prophet is alive.
The Shapeshifter is alive.
There are 5 Defenders remaining.
6 votes are needed to lynch.
Cute-Kelli by @Sessizlik.
Omei gives the corpse of a headless cadaver to you.
Omei offers you a quick wink.
On the positive side, they didn't manage to convert anyone. However, we lost a lot of people.
Omei gives the corpse of a headless cadaver to you.
Omei offers you a quick wink.
Nasty business with the Carnifex, but they do have tendencies to act blindly and be more harmful than good.
Since the cult did not expand tonight, we have only the No Vote train to go off of. Karhast and Ilyon were against it and defenders.
Ilyon voted for Zaila, Karhast for me.
I said yesterday that the scum probably voted in on No Vote alongside me. That's: Teani, Zaila, Serrice and Pazradym.
I still think the Sentinel should step forward so the Sciomancer can keep them safe and the defenders can get some eyes out in the night.
Attempted to convert their own, without knowledge.
Attempted to convert one who has already fallen.
Still, those these events are disturbing, more so is Xenia's request for the Sentinel to appear. After all, infiltration and subtlety are the marks of a great sentinel. Requesting they be brought into the light are the marks of the very cult we seek to destroy...
My vote is for Xenia.