Mafia: The Rellyw Rebellion - Game Thread

Moirean

I have been in contact with the Warden. He saw the jailor drag me to jail, the Indorani try to force entry into said jail and the Syssin investigating as reported anonymously. Either no reports were made about the Conclaves to the Warden or he's elected to not pass them on to me. Or someone is pretending to be the Warden through private whispers, though I imagine the real Warden would have contradicted the anonymous posting if there was fakery going on, which makes me believe that this person is who he is claiming to be.

Macavity

Here is a copy right from the rules...Now it says for both the Conclaves that in order to have a factional kill they have to be the most surviving members.  With no lynch from the day before that means that all Conclaves had all 3 members alive and thus locked them from a kill.  However the Jailer jailed Moirean, and then the Conclaves were able to kill someone.  With this logic it could be stated that Moirean is one of the Conclaves.   @Omei would this line of reasoning be correct with how the Jailer role works and how the other Conclaves can get a kill in if the Jailer choose one of them??

The Loyalist Conclaves

-Gain a factional kill when they become the Conclaves with the most surviving members.

-Win by eliminating the Rebel Conclaves and the Indorani, and establishing a majority over the rellyw.

The Rebel Conclaves

-Gain a factional kill when they become the Conclaves with the most surviving members.

-Win by eliminating the Loyalist Conclaves and the Indorani, and establishing a majority over the rellyw.

Demarcus

Macavity said:

Here is a copy right from the rules...Now it says for both the Conclaves that in order to have a factional kill they have to be the most surviving members.  With no lynch from the day before that means that all Conclaves had all 3 members alive and thus locked them from a kill.  However the Jailer jailed Moirean, and then the Conclaves were able to kill someone.  With this logic it could be stated that Moirean is one of the Conclaves.   @Omei would this line of reasoning be correct with how the Jailer role works and how the other Conclaves can get a kill in if the Jailer choose one of them??

The Loyalist Conclaves

-Gain a factional kill when they become the Conclaves with the most surviving members.

-Win by eliminating the Rebel Conclaves and the Indorani, and establishing a majority over the rellyw.

The Rebel Conclaves

-Gain a factional kill when they become the Conclaves with the most surviving members.

-Win by eliminating the Loyalist Conclaves and the Indorani, and establishing a majority over the rellyw.

I believe it has been pointed out already that if Moi was part of either Conclave, the other Conclave she is not part of would have gained a factional kill when she was jailed. Unless that faction either hit one of the un-killables with no public messages (Consanguine Experiment/Necromancer) or elected not to kill someone, I would say your reasoning behind stating that Moi could be one of the Conclaves is incorrect. @Omei can correct me if I am wrong about the Jailer and the factional kill portion, pretty sure it was mentioned before, but this wouldn't be the first time in this game I mis-read one of the rules.

Odd, though, that the Warden would contact Moi and not mention the Conclaves' actions to her, but mention both Conclaves (as indicated by the plural use) in their anonymous message.

Moirean

Completely opposite.

- If I were in a Conclave, being jailed would have given my faction a kill. There was no Conclave kill, so that seems pretty heavy proof that I'm not Conclave.

- If I were Indorani, I wouldn't have...killed myself. 

- I'm working with the Warden. 

- I kinda think we're wasting time reviewing me over and over. It's pretty clear to me that I'm the most innocent looking person in the game right now, relatively speaking. I have an Indorani lynch attempt on me and the jailor protected me. Everyone else has nothing, so yall are far more suspicious to me.

Except for the Warden.

Consider it a risk if you want, but I really hope we can get a network going of safe people we can trust. This will let us coordinate and will ensure that a single bad night won't set us back to round 1 - it'll also mean that we can keep the warden's info exclusive to us, instead of letting the dirty conclaves read it.

Demarcus

@Moirean is completely right, except I think being jailed would have given the other Conclave the kill, not her own.

Omei

A message is delivered from the Warden's office:

"Do not let the loud mouth imp decieve you, for she will have your DEVOTION. The jailor locked her up for her mouth, yet her conclave assisted in her plot by targetting her as well. Now she has you all under her control."

Sarita

After talking with Omei and thinking things over for a few days, I'm going to need to step down from the game. Omei requests that anyone who is interested in replacing me send a PM, and she'll go with a first-come, first serve basis.

Llok

Vote: Desian I'ma follow Moi.

Moirean

Hey fake warden - devotion is a passive effect, so you wouldn't have seen me use it, if I was the Dhasan. You'd only see my name associated with it if a Conclave member used it to try to FRAME me. But, I guess you'd know that if you were the real warden. You'd also have posted to contradict the original warden's message, instead of trying to slip in a shoddy frame job days later. Also the Indorani aren't Conclaves. 

If you are going to run around tacking up fake bulletins, at least make sure you know who can do what. Also, that's some mighty fine learned letters. Smells like Conclave edumacation to me.

Omei

Another message arrives, shortly on the first one's heels:

"This is to the Warden...I will continue to lock people up at random till there is a time where we can meet and confirm ourselves.  If you have an idea on how we can do this, do let me know. -Jailer"

Vharen

Interesting that the "Warden" waited til now to post. Either way, she's not an Indorani, so we're not killing her tonight.

I still say Llok. At this point, it would also help either firmly confirm or deny Moirean as a good gal. If she stepped in to defend Llok and he turns out bad, it's probably a crazy game she's playing after she lucked up on the situation this morning. If he's a good guy, we have someone we can trust faaaairly well. Lynching Desian doesn't give us that, and the anonymous notes can't be confirmed either way.

Macavity

now I am starting to think @Moirean and @Demarcus are in the same Conclave.... Here are my thoughts..

There are 3 of each Conclave, and in order for a kill to come from any Conclave there must be one less than the other one.

The Jailer locked up Moirean, in this case it would have reduced her Conclave to 2 people thus allowing the other Conclave to kill at night

Since the Warden posted what happened, the Indorani and Conclaves attacked Moirean but the Jailor locked her up, and with no day time lynching this means that she has to be part of a Conclave.

Also since the Conclaves know each other of course Demarcus would leap to defend her and push this train of thought away as fast as possible.

As for this Warden, her conclave could not have aided in targeting her because it would have prevented her conclave from a kill because the other Conclave would get it.  Now the question is, are both Conclaves working with each other to take out the Indorani first and then after that its no holds bars??

Based on this information I suggest we remember this and after the Indorani are killed, kill off Moirean or Demarcus after, or wait for the Indorani to do it for us....

Llok

The irony of Vharen telling me I don't use logic.

A few of you accused me of defending Desian so I must be lynched.

Now it's, Moirean stepped in and has maybe defended Llok so he must be lynched.

Vharen

You should try reading. I voted because your actions are odd, you have a propensity for being distracting, and your flailing defense didn't sit well with me.

All that Moirean's defense has done is given another advantage to offing you. That is adding to my reasoning, not counteracting any of it.

Moirean

I'm not defending Llok. I say we gain more from lynching Desian because he's inactive, so if he's a civ we're just losing dead weight. If he's a power role, then at least we can replace that with the conscript and have all of our roles active. If he's guilty, then we can follow through with the tenuous link between him and Llok. You guys can kill Llok if you want - I don't care. The basis for lynching him came from a personal animosity, however, and logic dictates that we'll benefit more from killing off Desian.

@vharen - the warden didn't wait to post. He posted several pages ago. This latest one is a clear hoax, not just because of the impossible logic, but also because if the first message was a fake there would have been another message saying "HEY. THAT IS FAKE." earlier, instead of this clearly forged one coming in now solely to frame me. 

@macavity - I have no idea what you just said.

Vharen

I was referring to the second "Warden" post, sorry if that wasn't clear.

The original vote for Llok was unsound, and I said as much. I still am not sure we will benefit more from killing Desian. I'll have to work out a pro/con list for myself, which will take a few.

Demarcus

Macavity said:

now I am starting to think @Moirean and @Demarcus are in the same Conclave.... Here are my thoughts..

There are 3 of each Conclave, and in order for a kill to come from any Conclave there must be one less than the other one.

The Jailer locked up Moirean, in this case it would have reduced her Conclave to 2 people thus allowing the other Conclave to kill at night

Since the Warden posted what happened, the Indorani and Conclaves attacked Moirean but the Jailor locked her up, and with no day time lynching this means that she has to be part of a Conclave.

Also since the Conclaves know each other of course Demarcus would leap to defend her and push this train of thought away as fast as possible.

As for this Warden, her conclave could not have aided in targeting her because it would have prevented her conclave from a kill because the other Conclave would get it.  Now the question is, are both Conclaves working with each other to take out the Indorani first and then after that its no holds bars??

Based on this information I suggest we remember this and after the Indorani are killed, kill off Moirean or Demarcus after, or wait for the Indorani to do it for us....

Now I'm starting to think that Macavity is suspicious. Lets take a look at his hypothetical scenario.

Moirean gets locked up. The opposing Conclave gains a factional kill and decides to target Moirean. This may be because she is vocal, but we'll just go back to using our odds from before of 1/22 in targetting her specifically out of everyone else.

The Indorani also decide they want to off Moirean, with the same 1/22 odds. This is on top of the 1/24 odds that the Jailer locks her up. This gives you a whopping probability of 0.0086%. Yes, you read that correctly, approximately nine one thousands of a percent. Fancy mathematics not withstanding, lets take a look at the logic behind it.

I've already expressed how little I like defending people. If pointing out facts that several other people agree with is defending someone who thus far hasn't been accused of anything is defending someone, then I'm guilty. But here I am willing to entertain this train of thought, so I don't think I'm wanting to "push it away as fast as possible." More like I'm trying to indicate my support to building a rellyw network so it isn't like shooting fish in a barrel for the Indorani and Conclaves.

Lets look at the second to last paragraph Macavity has put forth. "As for this Warden, her conclave could not have aided in targetting her because it would have prevented her conclave from a kill because the other Conclave would get it. Now the question is, are both Conclaves working with each other to take out the Indorani first and then after that its no holds bars??"

I guess I'm not quite clear how aiding in targetting her would have prevented one Conclave from getting a kill because the other would get it. I do however think that the notion both Conclaves are working together is a little absurd. First and foremost, how would they know who one another are?

Lets look at that last question about Conclaves knowing one another. Between the two Conclaves, there is 1 role sniffer. Lets say they sniff out an opposing Conclave member. Why would they make contact when they could push for a lynch or try and set them up to be suspicious for a possible night kill, thereby granting their faction the upper hand until one of them bites the bullet? They'd have all of their powers and a factional kill and the other Conclave would have one less power and no factional kill. What would they gain by working together? I don't really see how not having a factional kill is going to take care of the Indorani faster. Lynches are going to take awhile, night kills are going to whittle down the population further, and they might get lucky and take out more of the opposing Conclave.

These absurd ideas coming from Macavity make me think that he posted this annonymous message allegedly from the Warden suggesting Moirean is the Dhasan of Devotion and is now trying to spread seeds of doubt now that we have a very reasonable base to rally around. I hope the Warden can shed some light on which role posted that after tonight so we know just what role Macavity is.

Also, why would you want the Indorani to kill off Moirean and I if we're known Conclave members? Wouldn't that give the other Conclave a factional kill, and now the Indorani are subject to night kills instead of having all the power themselves?

Llok

Piper said:

Honestly, from what I see, Llok has a habit of flailing around with his 'logic' whenever the focus is on him.

So here is a train of thought. I'm an easy target using a very basic set of arguments with no real substance. Here is Piper, after listed as potentially suspicious going in to attack me because of my "flailing" "logic" without any attempt to rebuttle or point out the flaws. The flaws are visible to all, right?

Minarael said:

Hm. 

There is a whole lot of convoluted logic in the thread of Llok babble. The defense of another player also makes me a little antsy. That's an odd thing to do when everyone is a potential suspect.

Here it is again... All of that convoluted logic that you've declined to quote or point out the flaw in because... You don't want to get drawn into a discussion and baselessly renouncing is easier than actually using two or three of your brain cells?

Vharen said:

Llok is loud and is going to pull attention no matter what. I'm not sure that necessarily makes him guilty.

 

Vharen said:

You bring up an interesting point, though. By your own admission, you are being quieter this game.

Nice way to contradict yourself there, Vharen. Jumping all over the place, indeed.

So @ Minarael

Minarael said:

@Llok - While I think the initial train on you was poorly started, your explanation of the series of events that followed is not quite accurate. Frankly, offing you is probably useful whether you are guilty or innocent, because you tend to instigate a lot of baffling, useless discussion. Having sat on it for a bit, I think I'm generally in favor of training you simply to keep things moving in a good way. Plus Vharen has a good point about you being awfully quiet this time 'round comparatively. 

Ho hum.
Such as? You've offered no real insight into why or what.
Aryanne said that last game. Aryanne was Scum.
I said that, not Vharen. It's not a good point if it contradicts what multiple people have already said.

It's interesting that you think I've been quiet yet I've instigated a lot of baffling discussion by being loud and using my spurious logic. Lol. Vharen and Minarael have jumped on a bandwagon from Damonicous and Daskalos. Daskalos ignores five pages of information and uses 1st round bandwagoning tactics. Minarael and Vharen use contradicting information to then try and keep this train on me going?

Maybe they believe that I have a Rellyw role, due to my quietness. Their after he's found to be a rellyw argument can be "But yeah did you see all that contradicting information? That guy, sheesh.

At this point I'd say either of those two are good bets for potential Indorani or Conclave.

 

Vharen

Llok said:

I've been a lot quieter this game till this round where this ill-formed bandwagon has come along.

Unless you are just talking out your rear, that was me taking you at your word. So, good job attacking yourself?

Llok

Le sigh. Then your phrasing is wrong. What you said was an acknowledgement of the truth of my comment. Maybe in the future in such a situation you should use, "If Llok is actually being quieter, as he says, would this not mark him as more suspicious considering his recent behaviour?"

Good job on being a douche.

Vharen

Vharen

No worry, I use the short words next time, make simpler to know.

Llok

Well answer me this: Why would you take someone who you're accusing of being guilty at his word? That baffles me.

Vharen

Because I am quite honestly not 100% certain of your guilt, and I do try to actually think about these things. That is the nature of this game, no? We do not have perfect information, and we try to work through what others say.

My conclusion is that we're better off with you dead, Rellyw or not. If you are Rellyw, better to kill you off now than at a pivotal moment later. Perhaps a bit harsh, perhaps a bit douchey. But there you have it.

Llok

Well I've been quiet up until this round. Just been in favour of having some decisive action.

I would have been quiet this round in and just chipped in with a basic 2 cents comment but a lot of you have put illogical focus on me backed up by spurious logic. Examine how this round would have gone without the outburst that started this train.

Also in a situation where the Rellyw have to hunt down three different groups with three different play styles (9 guilty in total) you're better saving all the Rellyw possible.

Minarael

Llok, I am not easily baited into stupid arguments by childish insults. 

Watching this thread and the previous one, I have noted a trend in the discussion that you generate. It's not productive or useful. I don't feel like going back through all seven pages of this discussion to point it out to you in detail.

Quite simply put, you are a distraction we don't need.

Omei

"Looks like what we have here is a fail-ure to comm-un-i-cate," an anonymous voice filters from the back of the crowd.

There's a pause, then a quiet warning: "Play nice, boys and girls, or I'll be forced to take this justice here into my own hands. I'll be watching, vigilantly, so everyone back away and act real nice now, you hear, or next person who's rude gets an arrow right between the eyes."

Minarael

I honestly didn't bother to read the rest of the post after 'rub two or three braincells together' comment, because I find people who use insults that way in the course of a debate to be pretty useless generally. 

So I decided to go back and finish the thing to see if Llok actually made a useful point. 

Here is where reading comprehension is good for you, Llok. I said you were quiet -comparatively- in this game as opposed to the other. This is not at all the same thing as being quiet, generally. You instigate conversations that are pointless, not necessarily even of your own doing. For whatever reason, your presence generates useless sidebars. You aren't always the primary voice in these discussions, but you are often the flash point. 

There is nothing at all contradictory in what I have been saying as my justification to lynch you. I still think it's sound, even more so after your childish response.

Llok

Sigh.

Being trained on for no reason with no substance is getting boring.

Vote: Llok

"being awfully quiet this time 'round comparatively. "

Awfully quiet. Reading comprehension indeed.

Teani

Damn, a lot to read. Just for your information, Llok seems to actually try to make sense. Maybe everyone don't agree with how he words things (teaniouous things and all), but I'd rather take that right now than someone who doesn't even recognize he's being asked to speak up, multiple times.

Unvote Llok

Vote @Desian

Also, this train seemed to be leading down the whole "even though he might be innocent, he's annoying so let's kill"- thing, and I don't like that. From what I understand it's not really easy to defend oneself in these games, because everything will be suspicious. I'm not saying Llok is a rellyw, because I wouldn't know, but it really makes a lot more sense to scare Desian into action and see what happens.