Mafia: The Rellyw Rebellion - Game Thread

Alexina

Moirean said:

It's not just the Warden is making me consider no lynch - it's also the fact that if we DO hit a conclave member, we then double the amount of deaths we get at night.

I'd like to claim that we also got an infintely higher chance of ending up with a dead Indorani member after night, and at least a 50% increase in seeing a conclave member dead after night. These are just arbitrary numbers on my part, but the Conclaves would be focusing their efforts on killing each other/indorani first, and Rellyw second, right?

Ilyon

Okay, having thought about this a bit, I'm becoming increasingly convinced that we do not want to do a nolynch. Yes, things can get nasty if we give one of the conclaves a majority, but it is crucial to remember that this is going to happen regardless, sooner or later. And if it happens as a result of a night kill, we get much less information out of it.

More importantly, the point about conclaves/indorani wanting to also kill off each other is likewise valid - in an interesting twist, our interests are overlapping quite significantly. If we keep rolling nolynch, we are essentially letting the indorani run the show.

Another factor to consider is that the indorani want to keep the conclaves balanced as much as we do, and as a result they will be focusing on people whom they think have the biggest chance of being rellyws, while giving conclaves a kill too will result on both of them going after each other in addition to going after us. This is highly risky, but it's better than sitting and hoping that something happens.

Whom to lynch is the difficult part - if I haven't missed anyone, there are three people who have not posted yet, that being Aryanne, Aldric, and Haern. So I'm going to pick one of these, for now at least.

VOTE: Haern

Moirean

We have a miniscule chance of hitting an Indorani and a much higher chance of hitting a Conclave member.

While I stated early on that it's in the Conclaves interests to work with us initially, this doesn't mean they actually are going to go out of their way to help us. Killing a rellyw is just as useful as killing an Indorani as far as whittling down numbers goes, and they don't know who's who first round, just like we don't - so how would they be able to focus the kill we might potentially give them?

Again, yes, no lynch is a bad idea in traditional mafia games. Kneejerking against a no lynch simply because basic strategies for vanilla mafia say to...is not solid logic.

Haern

It seems like the reds have already begun ruffling feathers, but that's the nature of this gamble and overall game from the start it seems. I'm putting my cards down for nolynch. We can bide our time a little better and play it out rather than take a shotgun approach to the Conclaves and Indorani and end up spraying someone innocent with birdshot like it's going out of style.

Vote: Nolynch

Piper

@Llok- Sorry, it's intentional, though. I haven't had a chance to read through everything yet to make an informed decision. I'll vote soon.

Llok

Moirean... that same logic applies to the first night round. The Indorani have a decent chance of hitting a conclave member during the night round which will set the night lynching off anyway.

Once a conclave is in play I really hope they're not stupid enough to hit indiscriminately and will actively hunt out Indorani. They'll only be hurting themselves if they do just go down an indiscriminate path.

I actually think it's in Rellyw's interest to have a conclave in play actively hunting Indorani alongside them.

Ilyon

Well what do you know, this "call people out to get them to participate" thing is actually working. Let's see ...
UNVOTE: Haern
VOTE: Aldric

Moirean

- The Conclave won't get that kill until the next night.

- This early on, none of us have much to go on, so it's kinda silly to expect that the Conclaves will somehow be able to pinpoint the Indorani super well.

- It's also in the Conclaves' interests to kill citizens. How does it hurt them to be indiscriminate? They have to eliminate everyone not them. Killing anyone helps them out.

Haern

Ilyon said:

Well what do you know, this "call people out to get them to participate" thing is actually working. Let's see ...

I'd had my post all written up, I just apparently forgot to hit the damn button. Stupid drafts, stupid vanillaforums. *shakefist*

Sarita

I'd like to make two points about choosing no lynch versus a random victim.

1. Unlike more traditional mafia games, the group of scum don't all know each others' identities. At best, they will know exactly two others. It will be tricky to tease out vote patterns for all of them because each faction could act differently during the day votes. Where in more normal games, it would be possible to find a few people suspicious based on only voting with the crowd and other factors, that will probably play a much smaller role this time around, but that doesn't mean it will not play a role at all.

2. On the other hand, voting for a no lynch ensures that the Indorani are safe for at least two turns. Choosing someone ourselves or having Omei do it for us at least gives us a 3/25 chance of getting somewhere. Yes, there is a double chance (6/25) that we will hit a Conclave person. I would go so far as to argue that five of the six have roles that really only help themselves. The role investigation can help, but ultimately it could still just as easily be used against us to try and take out the rellyw roles. For the sake of argument, we can say there is a 4/25 chance of hitting a rellyw with a role. I'm leaving the conscript out since at this point, s/he would just be replaced. That leaves 12/25 regular rellyw to give us the following odds: 4/25 chance of hitting someone important, but who would be replaced. 9/25 (or 8/25 if you really believe that the rebel Conclave is going to act outside of their interest) chance of hitting someone who needs to go anyway. 6/25 chance that there will be the problem of a double scum hit in the night rounds due to Conclave imbalance providing factional kills at night (which will in turn leave a 5/21 chance that another Conclave member will be hit by the Indorani at night, a 2/21 chance EACH that the Indorani or killing Conclave will hit a member of the Conclave that doesn't get the factional kill, and a 3/21 chance that the killing Conclave will hit an Indorani.) If we vote no lynch, there is a strict 6/24 chance that the Indorani will hit a Conclave member at night, which would lead to a factional kill in the following night round.

The question that faces us is when the risks of hurting ourselves outweigh the benefits of eliminating our powerful enemies. With the majority we enjoy now and the certainty of our own roles being replaced if we make a mistake, I would argue against a no lynch. I would also agree with those who have been saying that we should use this round to get participation going and then. That in mind, I appreciate him making the first post of the game, but I haven't heard anything solid from him since.

Vote: Kaeus

Edit for completely messed up colors. Sorry about that.
I
I

Sarita

Apparently I just am really bad at doing colors on the forums. Sorry for that and for the double post.

Teani

@Moirean It's in the Conclaves' interest to support us in the beginning though, trying to get to the Indorani together, which, I believe, is what @Llok was saying.

Unvote Aarbrok

Vote Aldric

To help with the 'get people to participate'- thing

Edited for color only.

Aldric

Ahh, sorry guys, spent the last two days moving and at an amusement park.

Considering our numbers here, we've got a much higher chance of lynching a civvie today and losing another tonight. The warden role is a unique one, and I think that with it we'll be able to successfully do a nolynch in such a way that ends up productive for us, as opposed to other games where such a role didn't exist.

Vote: No Lynch

Periluna

Honestly guys, a NOLYNCH is the best possible solution for this game first round. The chances of the Indorani hitting a Conclave member are slim, whereas the chances of us lynching one of our own is very high right now. I'd rather us lose one than two.

Minarael

Okay, I think I'm starting to grok this general argument better.

No Lynch 

Pros:

- We don't hit a Conclave member and give them the opportunity to start indiscriminately killing and adding to the cycle of woe.

- We gain information during the night from various abilities that may or may not be inaccurate (there are a lot of ways to divert/fiddle with information in this game). 

Cons:

- Indorani still get to off people. So while we are sitting on our hands, they are plucking out everyone who isn't them. One free night of mayhem, possibly two as I heard someone mention. They have the same chance of hitting a power role as the rest of us, but it doesn't matter as much to them. They need to eliminate -everyone-. 

Lynch Someone:

Pros:

- We have a strong chance of hitting either a baddie (who all have power roles so we are taking out someone useful who wants to kill us), or a rellyw with no power role. While it would suck to off a rellyw, it's information gained at a fairly low cost. We have nearly a dozen normal citizens. We have wiggle room.

Cons:

- We might hit the Jailer/Syssin/Warden/Vigilante/Conscript. That would suck. If we hit anyone who isn't one of the first four, we still have the Conscript. If we hit the conscript at this point, it's just sort of like losing a wildcard. Sucks, but not terrible. 

- We might give the Conclaves power. This can go both ways. A conclave with power has minimal interest to help or hurt us. Once the other Conclave and the Indorani are handled, it becomes a power struggle in which they gain zero benefit from giving rellyw any knowledge, so they are a lot more likely to remain silent and neutral in rellyw struggles while they establish their own power.

I actually expected to be all RAWR LYNCH, because it still seems really, really odd to me to give the Indorani a free night. A closer examination is making me lean more towards Moirean's idea. It may be to the rellyw's benefit to avoid offing a Conclave member until we have a stronger understanding of the lay of the land. 

Still keeping my initial vote, but starting to reconsider.

Macavity

@Omei can we get an official total for right now to determine where we are?  Thanks

Omei

Rule update: anonymous messages will show up to the Warden, and their sending is obfuscated by the Consanguine Experiment's cloak. No name will be attached to anonymous messages, although the report at the end of the round will include them, E.G. "A rellyw/the Dhasan of Art sent an anonymous message with the following text: 'blah blah blah.'"

Apologies for amending the game in progress. It simply felt like a necessary change.

On to vote totals:

No Lynch (8): Macavity, Periluna, Xenia, Daskalos, Aren, Aarbrok, Haern, Aldric

Kaeus (1): Sarita

Aarbrok (1): Alexina

Daskalos (1): Vharen

Aren (1): Minarael

Aldric (2): Ilyon, Teani

14/25 players have cast a vote.
FOURTEEN VOTES necessary for a decision.

Damonicus

Vote: No Lynch

Jasline

Okay. Looking at all the pros and cons of a lynch vs. a no lynch, what it comes down to is either keeping the number of people the same and seeing what the syssin and warden come up with or killing someone off and hope they're one of the bad guys and then seeing what info we can get from the syssin and warden. Hm. I'm going with the first option and going to:

Vote: No Lynch

Demarcus

Llok said:

Vote: Demarcus

Dude's more of a nuisance than me o.O

@Omei Unless I ignored a post by @Llok where he changed this vote for me, I should have a vote up on the board for me.

Since I had a less than 16 hour day today, (it was only 11!) I promised I would read everything, and I did. I have reached a conclusion. I need to read it all again. I know there is more information to be had.

We're up to 10 No Lynch votes. There are 9 bad guys, and it is probably a safe assumption that some of them have not voted. It's also a safe assumption that of the 7 other votes, one or two of them are also bad guys. Unfortunately, voting patterns aren't going to help us in this first round, since one vote a pattern does not make. Two votes and we can at least extrapolate and make very crude voting pattern guesstimates and refine them from there.

I would like to bring up something that I don't *think* anyone has brought up yet. @Moirean I know we've been down this road before so feel free to correct me if you or anyone else has brought this up.

The rude dudes with attitudes have bad mamma jammas that can really sort of only be killed with a lynch. The Consanguine Experiment has to be lynched, and the Necromancer is unlikely to be killed without a lynch because I don't think there is a very high likelihood that the Indorani and the Vigilante (the only two night kills tonight) are going to target the Necromancer randomly tonight because... the Necromancer is Indorani. I've never seen a game where the mafia kills (or tries to) themselves at night. The Vigilante doesn't have enough information to go on unless they're playing fast and loose with guns a-blazing, and only has one shot per night anyways.

I've pondered at great lengths the different scenarios, and with 4 factions and different conditional night kills, there are way too many possibilities to present any sort of probabilities of outcomes, because there are way too many after the first round for it to be feasible. A No Lynch brings up a fifth scenario to factor in. Ugh.

I disagree on the no lynch for the simple fact that we have to lynch people to win. No matter who the Indorani off at night, it's not going to be good for us. I did the same thing as last time, randomized the list of 25 names 25 times (i.e. the list the same number of times as the people on it) and courtesy of random.org:

Vote: Aren

Moirean

All of the arguments I'm seeing against no lynch are saying basically that we're spending a night round losing someone.

If we lynch, we are almost guaranteed to lose TWO people - either we hit a conclave and lose TWO people at night, or we lynch an innocent civilian. 

Right now, there is so much going on and people are still feeling out roles, not to mention there are four factions - vote record is really going to be completely random and haphazard right now, so even if we did lynch someone, we'd be gaining very little useful info to analyse - and the discussion and votes for/against no lynch are giving us some good info to work with. You don't have to kill someone to gain info about people.

I haven't seen anything compelling enough to turn me away from this, so I...

Vote: No Lynch

Demarcus

Moirean said:

All of the arguments I'm seeing against no lynch are saying basically that we're spending a night round losing someone.

If we lynch, we are almost guaranteed to lose TWO people - either we hit a conclave and lose TWO people at night, or we lynch an innocent civilian.

Hrm. just for the purpose of clarification, if we hit a conclave, it is entirely possible that the Indorani and Conclave with a kill then both off a non-rellyw. I can't say it is likely based on a simply random. So we do lose TWO people, but they don't have to be rellyw. I do agree, however, that statistically speaking in a purely random sense, we would be more likely to lose a rellyw in both votes. I don't think I have to point out that by looking at these numbers, we're always going to be more likely to lose a rellyw because they're going to be in the majority, and if they aren't, they've pretty much lost. There may be, with these crazy rules, some configuration towards the end where the Conclave + Indorani outnumber the rellyw and the game isn't over, but we're in a bad spot when that happens. I guess in theory we could have no rellyw left and the game is still going.

Minarael

There's a fair amount of silence. Especially interested in hearing from:

@Aryanne. 

@Kaeus. 

@Daskalos. 

Daskalos

Hey, I'm just trying to figure this out in my first time playing. I vote no lynch because it makes sense and we're more likely to hit a rellyw than someone we want gone. Let's see who the scum try to finger after the no-lynch and then decide.

Periluna

People arguing that we can't learn anything from a NOLYNCH are wrong. I'm learning quite a bit. We don't learn if there is no chatter though. We learn a bit from those that just bandwagon without casting their own opinions, but not much. The more we talk, the more we learn. The key is taking what we learn and applying it correctly. 

Honestly, numbers wise (and yes... I know I've already said this), it is in our (rellyw) best interest to not lynch anyone this first round. So I urge those of you who are not voting or not speaking up to not allow for two of our own to be killed. This isn't giving the Indorani a pass. This is giving ourselves a chance to gather up the information to make a -good- decision. Random votes will only hurt us and the likelihood of actually lynching an Indorani are so slim... Yes. We are sacrificing someone at the end of the night, but I honestly think it is better to start the second day with more knowledge and only -one- dead Rellyw.

Llok

Vote: nolynch

Omei might be cruel. Sigh. The wrong people are controlling this game already.

Minarael

I just can't get over the fact that no lynch seems like an astoundingly -bad- idea. 

Like Periluna said, we get information from talking. We don't need to sit on our hands to make that happen. We don't gain anything by sitting around and waiting for others to pick us off. We already -have- information. I think we can even begin to pluck out threads of suspicion based on what we have already seen presented. 

It's going to be a slaughter regardless. We -know- we are losing someone tonight, regardless. It might not be one of us, it might be a Conclave member. If it's a Conclave member, then tomorrow night we'll see two slaughters, not one. Any information gained tonight with powers is suspect because of the powers of the Conclaves. The longer we leave the Conclaves/Indorani in power unchecked, the faster we die. 

We need to vote on a lynch. I'm sticking with Aren for a bandwagon vote with no explanation. No lynch is just a bad, bad plan.The more I think about it, the less I like it. 

Moirean

Why do we need to lynch someone to get info? To compare notes with voting patterns? There are 3 Indorani and they will be basically killing at random, with their own agenda. Treat the result of what THEIR kill gives us as the typical day one lynch - neither of the Conclaves who know each other are, remember, so kills from the Indorani - while, yes, not targetting Indorani - will pick people off and reveal their alignments, which is EXACTLY what daytime lynches do. With multiple factions in play, night kills serve that same role - why do we need to throw extra people to death to get info we're already going to be getting anyways?

Basic "info to work with" is something we get from the Indorani's kill and faction it reveals (or failure and info revealed from that failure). It seems like a bad idea to kill people off simply because we want information, when we're already going to be getting that info coming for us, and it results in unnecessary citizen deaths.

Ilyon

Sigh, very well. It seems that despite the Indorani being the only faction whom a nolynch really helps, the opinion that the alternative is too risky prevails, and there is basically zero chance of agreeing on any single person. Letting Omei do the RNG vote would yield even less information than a failed lynch, so that's out. By my count, we are at 12 nolynch votes right now, and need 14. So I'm going to:

UNVOTE: Aldric
VOTE: Nolynch

This puts us at 13 nolynch votes, so if one out of the remaining twelve wants to do the same to seal the deal, go ahead.

Moirean

I only actually voted for no lynch on this page, despite being the one who first floated the idea. I don't like the reasons I've heard against it, so I finally voted for it. I guess it's just going to be a matter of opinion and individual analysis of the game layout. Even though some people think it's useless to not lynch, bear in mind that there are almost certainly some guilty people in the no lynch group, so it's not like we don't have nearly 4 pages of discussion and voting record to bolster the information we're going to get tonight.