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Since I am assuming that Slyphe is not one of our two roles, we have three possibly-probably-innocent folks. In addition, I am prepared to regard Toz and Xenia as being either innocent or neutral based on their misunderstanding of the number of bad guys in play; bad guys wouldn't have made a mistake like that, I think, since they'd know the true quantities at work.
Assuming Toz and Xenia are not a part of our confirmed three-person innocent group, we have five people I am prepared to regard as non-Assassins. This, taken from twelve, leaves us with seven. Three of these are our likely targets.
This leaves us, with a random point from Moirean, at a 43% chance of getting a bad guy before we lose her this night round.
I'm drawn to three possibilities here:
1) Toz and Xenia are innocent, and you're trying to draw our attention to them in order to exploit what I mentioned. Put the spotlight on both of them for goofing, as like I said, ignorance is a standard tactic used by mafia to try and blend in.
2) One (or maybe both - you're tricky with this, maybe you're only protecting one of them so we hit the other who's actually innocent?) is actually mafia, and you're trying to protect them as fellow mafia.
3) You might actually have just made that statement with none of the above in mind.
2/3 of these possibilities lead me to believe you're mafia, so until I'm given a reason not to:
Vote: Damariel
It strikes me as odd that Demarial wanted to push so hard for the lynching on that first day, but I'm willing to excuse that, as this is a tried and true tactic for the game and perhaps one you were defaulting on. However, since then, I've had a finger of suspicion on your Demarial. Before making a vote, I would like to hear what you've to say.
Thogh I'm not really ready to clear Toz or Xenia either. Making a 'mistake' on game rules is a tactic I've seen used before.
At the time of writing, the entries were confusing and unclear, such that I asked for clarification. Bad guys, who would have had two other names from the beginning of the game, would have known better than to make that assumption; I am not prepared to regard Toz and Xenia's ignorance as an intentional gambit to throw off suspicion, not when they both arrived at the number two through similarly flawed logic. Mafia wouldn't want to tie themselves together by using similar reasoning - why would they duplicate each other, thereby leading them to be compared? Not a smart bad guy move. Toz and Xenia are smarter than that.
Nonetheless, if we begin to question them again, we drop to a 33% chance of hitting a bad guy (3/9). I consider this unwise for the reasons I have outlined above. If we also allow for the 8% chance that you're the Grand Poohbah, Slyphe, and trying to get me killed for daring to make some assumptions about our assets... then our chances are 22% out of this group of nine, or 30% with you included. It's interesting how our odds improve with you factored in, especially given that you jumped on me at the first excuse.
Maybe you want me dead but you want to obfuscate it with the day vote? If so, this is a very clumsy way of doing it.
@Xenia: First round lynches are a valuable source of information... providing that a small subset of the players have not been given the capability rulewise to prove their positive identity and form an alliance on the first round of play. When a successful roleclaim occurs, then we understand that some of the players - and most particularly the one who has become the central hub of communication - is operating with more information than the others, and we will want to follow their lead.
It's impractical for players to do otherwise, since they might target one of the good roles... and intervention from the hub of communication, therefore, results in a night round gamble where the bad guys have multiple viable targets. Therefore, by any reasonable interpretation of the metagame, we are left with a situation where it makes perfect sense to follow the lead of the central hub of communication.
Consequently, this destroys the ability of the town kill to yield satisfactory information about who is and isn't a bad guy. I should have realized this sooner, but day one roleclaims aren't something I'm used to and I didn't fully consider the potential ramifications.
Suffice it to say that in all situations but ones alike to or similar to this one, I am a staunch advocate of a day one vote as a means of generating information and precedent. I rarely if ever expect it to yield a bad guy kill. It's more of a long-term investment. In this particular instance, its usefulness is limited. Moirean is probably dead in this next night round, so we're going into round three down two rounds of valuable precedent and information because her gambit didn't pay off.
That's not her fault; the bad guys just got really lucky this time and happened to target the one person that was safeguarding the alliance. It does, however, strike a huge blow to the town.
Parker, Llok, and Aarbrok have been pretty quiet and though I was at the beginning it was cause I was out of town. Not singling any of them out, just naming the people who only have one post so far.
Which puts us all in a very bad situation against the baddies, because were basically lined up in a field with our shovels waiting to dig our own graves if we speak to much or speak to little.
I'm hesitant to go with Toz or Xenia because of Damariel's reasoning and Slyphe is confirmed good.
So wow, this has all happened and is quite a lot to process. Any tl;dr?
@Damariel - you claim you aren't used to round one roleclaims, and use that as your logic for why you were pushing for a lynch even after I claimed...yet several games previous YOU made a round one roleclaim yourself. You're talking, a lot, to make way too many justifications. You also tried to make a lynch appear appealing by skewing the numbers as much as you could, including the sap and Haven, neither of which are roles that can really hurt/help the town (the sap doesn't even KNOW they are the sap).
Not voting yet, but for the rest of you, Damariel isn't on the cleared list.
You are the only one that can supply us with a reasonable pointer. We might end up lynching our Knight-Marshall by mistake. You accepted the burden of responsibility when you made a round one roleclaim. Tonight, we're losing two votes when you bite the dust.
Now pick someone - because you have the best chance of hitting a bad guy - or give the bad guys another free round. And if you want to vote for me, that's fair enough. At least you won't be dragging your heels.
Until such a time as you are eliminated, you are living, breathing justification for everyone else in the game. Everyone else can stay quiet and pile onto your vote, once you make it; if you're trying to draw people out into saying things and giving us precedent, then I don't think the bad guys are going to be EDIT:silly enough to fall for that. They know they have nothing to lose by staying quiet this round and then jumping in to support your vote, and everything to lose by voting out of turn without your input.
Our ability to glean meaningful information, as a result, is severely limited, so this round is nothing more or less than a flat numbers game - a numbers game that you have better odds of winning than anyone else. Abstaining from a vote will be of limited usefulness, due to the reasons I have outlined above, and you can implicitly eliminate our Knight-Marshall from our lineup - a privilege none of the rest of us have.
I understand wanting to hold off, and I understand how I might read as suspicious, but I think our best collective option is for you to make the best call you can and hope that in the coming rounds, we're only dealing with two bad guys. Even if I am a bad guy, I don't think my logic is really disputable.
Vote: Parker for her total silence, save for one post.
Voting Parker
EDIT: I somehow submitted early wtf. I didn't change anything, just finished typing Dam's name.
Vote: Parker
@Parker, @Aarbrok and @Aren all sort of set off my spidey senses though. No votes yet, would like to hear from Parker, but his silence is generally suspicious to me.
Vote:Parker
Current Voting:
Damariel: Slyphe (1)
Parker: Moirean, Alee, Aren, Aarbrok, Herald (5)
7 votes are needed for a lynch.
Vote: Parker
Vote: Aarbrok