Mafia: Riots in the streets of Enorian!

Moirean

Vanguard, please contact me.

Damariel

I can't believe that I have to explain, once again, why voting nolynch is a terrible idea by any objective measure of the game. But here I go.

Lynches are the town's sole, public, verifiable method of generating reliable information about who is innocent and who is not. Abstaining from a day vote gives sole killing power to the bad guys, and leaves us without a way of seeing who's voting on who. If we wait until Day 2, we are guaranteed to be down an innocent - with the further disadvantage that we don't have a list of names which is, in fact, very likely to contain some of our mafiosos.

The point of the Day 1 kill is not, necessarily, to kill a mafioso; it's valuable precedent and information to help us kill them in the later rounds, plus with Moirean's revelation that she's the Herald and the potential alliance in the first round, I'm willing to trust her lead on who to target because it eliminates our risk of accidentally targeting one of the good roles.

So. I'm not voting yet. I'm waiting on Moirean's call.

EDIT: And even if I weren't, I'd still be advocating for a day vote for informational purposes.

Moirean

I'm waiting on people to contact me.

Moirean

I really hope we don't have people MIA already.

Moirean

Ok I am in touch with the power roles. Now, I'm not sure how to vote - a lynch won't really give any evidence, since people can just say "I followed the Herald." What are the odds on me picking a mafia, knowing the ID of 3 people to NOT hit? Can someone do the math on that?

Ilyon

Yeah, but it'll be unreliable, as we do not know how many Shadowy Assassins there are. 13 people in total, 3 excluded (power roles), meaning you'll be picking from 10 people. If there are 2 assassins + the leader for a total of 3, which is the most likely case, and if we count Haven as a baddie, you have a 40% chance to pick a valid target, and a 60% chance to pick a townie. If there only is one Shadowy Assassin (unlikely), it'll be 30%/70%.

Damariel

Ilyon - it occurs to me, belatedly, that although there are no hard numbers available re: the bad guys in either of the threads I have just read, there are people posting in the thread - Toz, Xenia - who are using two and not citing their sources.

So the question becomes, if this is the case... where did they get that number from? Not anywhere in this thread, as far as I can tell.

Can they explain where they got that total from?

EDIT: @Demarcus: How many Instigators are in the game?

Demarcus

You know, it's funny how things are perfectly clear in your head when you write something up. For the sake of clarity, the Grand Poohbah has TWO (that is 2... not 3, not 1, definitely not 4...) Shadowy Assassins. My apologies for the oversight of this information but it is being provided at this time to clarify.

Carry on smartly.

Damariel

@Moirean: The math you are asking for entails thirteen players - subtracting four of these from our total (yourself and our three power roles), we end up with nine. From these nine we can point to three targets (Grand Poohbah, two Shadowy Assassins), as well as one more (Locke the Lyncher). Our chances, with you pointing a target, are 44% of eliminating a bad guy or a neutral party with a unique win condition, and 56% of eliminating a civilian.

Moirean

There are only 3 power roles. The sap is not a power role.

Moirean

So, that gives me a 30% chance to hit a bad guy with a random vote choice.

Damariel

Ten remaining players, then. Eliminate three, to seven, and one more to six. It's an exact 40% chance of getting a bad-or-neutral, by your call.

Moirean

I'm not counting Haven, since he doesn't have any special powers and him winning doesn't mean a loss for us. I don't think he's a role we should be worrying about.

So that's a 30% chance. Lynching won't reveal anything to work with down the road except who's good at joining the group, so I'm going to put both of my votes towards No Lynch.

Damariel

They, however, also have a 20% chance of scoring a hit on one of our roles during the night - they're probably not going for you, since you'll be protected. If you're willing to gamble on those odds to improve ours, that's a fair call. Personally, I'm not casting my vote until I hear how Toz and Xenia got those numbers without a public source.

Teani

I'll stick with I said earlier. Vote: NO LYNCH

Demarcus

A messenger bearing the Herald's coat of arms dashes through the streets yelling, "Wait! Wait! The Herald has changed their mind! No One should die!"

Current Votes:

Moirean: Llok (1)
Llok: Slyphe (1)
No Lynch: Xenia, Moirean, Alee, Toz, Teani, Herald (6)

7 votes are needed for a lynch (or no lynch!).

Damonicus

Vote: No Lynch

Xenia

@Demariel, my numbers were based on what I read for the power roles, and are in fact wrong. I thought there were only two Instigators. The Grandpoobah and a Shadowy Assassin. Now that Demarcus has cleared up that there are actually 2 Assassins, my numbers would be incorrect, as I was looking at 2/13 chances instead of 3. As for my sources for the math, well, I used what everyone would have had available from the start of the game in the roles list provided.

The power roles, in my mind, for Enorian were only 3, I did not count the Sap. This gave 3 power roles to Enoiran. I was looking at the 3/13 odds of voting on an Enorian power role (23%), vs a 2/13 to vote for an Instigator (15%). Given that there are actually 3 baddies, then actually it would just be an even 23% chance for both.

All this being said, Moirean now knows who the 3 power roles are. Should we assume that this is correct (and one of the Instigators did not counter claim and we have an MIA power role -- unlikely), then now we can look at the pool to vote on as 10.

This gives us a 3/10 chance of hitting a baddie, and a 7/10 chance of hitting one of the civilians (I consider the sap and Haven as civilians).

Now, say we lynch day 1 and hit a civilian. Our pool of people are reduced down to 9. Of this remaining number of people, 3 are going to be the Instigators, giving them a pool of 6 people to kill. At night time they will now have a 2/6 chance of hitting a power role, under the assumption that Moirean, the 3rd power role, is protected. There odds, then, will jump from 20% to 33% on getting lucky.

Right now, we're not in a lynch or lose situation. However, if you lynch wrong today, you will get into a situation of a lynch or lose situation much faster than if you are patient and give the Marshall time to do his job and start eliminating more people from that list of possible guilty parties.

One strategy, I would suggest, is to have Moirean ask everyone to claim their roles to her. It's important to look at where the counter claims are. Most likely guilty people are going to go for the Haven role or the civilian role. She then can relate to the Marshall who's what, and that person can concentrate their efforts on an even smaller pool of people, increasing their odds of finding a guilty party.

Moirean

Everyone else is just going to spam my inbox with "civilian" claims. I think we can bypass that step.

Toz

Yeah, uh. I just counted the headings as I went down the list of things in play. Herald, Marshall, Doe, Whatever-good-guy-I'm-missing, Haven(who I counted as 'innocent' because we can win without killing them off), Poobah and Assassin. Which is 2/13 evil. I maintain our numbers still improve with a nolynch - the reason you want to lynch round 1 is so you can establish who is trustworthy and who is likely scum, it gives you an earlier start to patterns so you can start analyzing. Here, we don't need that AS MUCH, as we've gained 2-3 confirmed good guys vs. a list of potential suspicious. So I maintain a nolynch is a good first round pick.

Ilyon

Right, it's true that with a confirmed powerrole on round 1, the information gained from a lynch would be limited - people will just claim that they followed Moirean's call. However, this will be true for subsequent rounds as well, so we'll need to find a way to deal with that.

Teani

So, according to count, there should be a no lynch this day. We still haven't heard anything from @Aarbrok, @Aren or @Parker.

Parker

I'm here! I'll go with

Vote: No Lynch

Demarcus

Moirean: Llok (1)
Llok: Slyphe (1)
No Lynch:: Xenia, Moirean, Alee, Toz, Teani, Herald, Damonicus, Parker (8)

"Justice! Justice! Justice!" chants the crowd as they march towards Four Corners with murderous intent.
"Kill Moirean!" shouts one voice. "No! Kill that Llok guy!" replies another. "But the Herald said to kill Toz!"

"I heard the Herald say No One should die!" An echo of "Yeah!" followed by whooping and hollering as torches and pitchforks raise in the air. "Find No One! They must pay for these crimes!" is the last recognizable cry that can be heard as the citizenry mark off to find their mark.

No One has been lynched.

It is now Night 1

Aarbrok

I was going along with the No Lynch... (Was on the phone with Comcast all morning ..ugh)

Demarcus

An uneasy silence grips Enorian as the sun rises. Only the cawing of a crow can be heard while the citizenry rouse from their dwellings and gather at Four Corners. Glancing around it dawns upon you that someone is missing. With horror your eyes are drawn upward towards the pulpit used to address the Enorian people. An enormous pile of artifacts can be seen with only a bloodied arm visible from underneath.

Teani has been slain in the dark of night!

She was the Vanguard.

It is now Day 2

7 vote are needed for a lynch.

Moirean

...Ok this sucks. I'm guessing Teani sent in her action without us chatting about it or something, because we didn't discuss who she would be protecting, at all, in our group convo.

Aren

Sorry I was away on an airshow and didn't know we started! Back now though.

Damariel

Given that Moirean is dead in the next night round, how does she propose we proceed?

Moirean

Slyphe investigated as innocent.