Mafia - Endings in Esterport: Return of the Illuminai

245678

Comments

  • SerriceSerrice the Black Fox Member Posts: 1,202 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Maybe he just misunderstood how the game works? I know personally, I don't know why nolynch is a bad option. Can someone illuminate me (haha)?
     
  • ZailaZaila Pacific TimeMember Posts: 263 ✭✭✭✭
    Alright, so!
    There are presently 10 Defenders, 2 cultists and one shapeshifter.

    If we kill someone with the zero information we have, there is an extremely high chance that we will kill a defender (10:13 vs 3:10 to kill a baddie). In the night, the shapeshifter will ALSO kill someone, and they are most likely to also kill a defender (9:11 chance if we do lynch someone) and then tomorrow, we will probably awaken tomorrow with:

    7 defenders, 3 cultists and one shapeshifter.

    If we DON'T kill someone tonight, tomorrow we'll either have
    8 defenders, 3 cultists and one shapeshifter (most likely)
    10 defenders, 1 cultists and one shapeshifter
    9 defenders, 2 cultists and one shapeshifter (if the cultists convert one but one of the cultists gets axed by the shifter)
    10 defenders, 3 cultists and NO shapeshifter
    And tremendously more information to work off of.

    I see no reason that killing someone with no information benefits us defenders. I keep my vote of no lynching and will probably be looking pretty hard at those trying to make it sound like somehow a kill today is likely to be beneficial. Lynching someone today is just tremendously beneficial to the cultists.
    SibattiXenia
  • XeniaXenia Member Posts: 886 ✭✭✭✭✭
    @Pazradym makes some solid points and I'd like to expand on them.

    We've a:
    • 15% chance of lynching the cult
    • 8% chance of lynching the shapeshifter
    • 23% chance of lynching either of the two
    • 23% chance of lynching our most powerful Defenders
    • 69% chance of lynching a loyal Defender.
    It's true, we can not allow the cult to grow and the only way I know to start a discussion is to offer a course of action. I've never been a fan on targeting someone blindly so of course i choose not to lynch.

    I certainly want to ensure our Sentinel does not somehow find themselves on the chopping block. Assuming our Sentinel remains safe today, I wonder how they will be able to distinguish between our Shapeshifter and Carnifex and the Prophet and Sciomancer?

    I say this Defenders, let us safeguard and prepare for the questions to come now, rather than squabble who to blindly kill today. As controversial as this may be, I believe our best bet is for the Sentinel to step forward now so that the Sciomancer may know whom to protect.

    With this happening, the Sentinel will be able to distinguish the Prophet's night activities from the Sciomancers, leaving only the Shapeshifter and Carnifex difficult to distinguish between.
    image
  • XeniaXenia Member Posts: 886 ✭✭✭✭✭
    While you all digest my proposal, I will say that @Koda makes a strong point and has planted seeds of suspicion around @Karhast
    image
  • ZailaZaila Pacific TimeMember Posts: 263 ✭✭✭✭
    My figures there were a bit f'd up, but we're not supposed to edit, gah, 3:13 chance to kill a baddie at present - Xenia's percentages are right.
  • SerriceSerrice the Black Fox Member Posts: 1,202 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Well, you got me sold:

    (font color="red")Vote: Nobody(/font)
     
  • KelliaraKelliara Member Posts: 469 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 22
    Current Standings:
    Nobody - Xenia, Teani, Serrice. (3)
    Zaila - Ilyon (1)
    Karhast - Koda (1)

    7 votes needed to lynch.
    Now with 253% more Madness.
    Chibi-Kelli by @Eleanor.
  • ZailaZaila Pacific TimeMember Posts: 263 ✭✭✭✭
    @Kelliara - I also voted: Nobody
    (I just couldn't get the color to work right)
  • KelliaraKelliara Member Posts: 469 ✭✭✭✭
    So you did.

    Nothing to see here, carry on.
    Now with 253% more Madness.
    Chibi-Kelli by @Eleanor.
  • KelliaraKelliara Member Posts: 469 ✭✭✭✭
    Current Standings:
    Nobody - Xenia, Teani, Zaila, Serrice. (4)
    Zaila - Ilyon (1)
    Karhast - Koda (1)

    7 votes needed to lynch.
    Now with 253% more Madness.
    Chibi-Kelli by @Eleanor.
  • PazradymPazradym Member Posts: 92 ✭✭✭
    Seeing as how the only arguments I've seen so far have been in agreement with my concerns, I'll throw my hat in the ring on the no lynch pile, but seeing as I don't know the colors thing either...


    ***VOTE: NO LYNCH***
    By the divine might of Omei, you are restored to life.
    Omei gives the corpse of a headless cadaver to you.
    Omei offers you a quick wink.

  • XeniaXenia Member Posts: 886 ✭✭✭✭✭
    While I'm glad we are thinking critically about who to lynch, we should also discuss what tactics and strategy we wish to employ. We are at our strongest now, let us not hurry to our decision and utilize this time to also discuss how to ensure we zero in on the best targets
    image
  • KelliaraKelliara Member Posts: 469 ✭✭✭✭
    The sun begins to drift closer to the western horizon...
    Now with 253% more Madness.
    Chibi-Kelli by @Eleanor.
  • IlyonIlyon Member Posts: 746 ✭✭✭
    Xenia said:

    discuss how to ensure we zero in on the best targets

    I concur.

    FoS: Xenia

    I had assumed that nolynch suggestion to be just a trap, akin to the last time, but apparently Xenia is actually serious, and so here we are. For the benefit of all, I will put things into bullet form:

    Advantages of a nolynch vote:
    - a town member does not die on day 1

    Disadvantages of a nolynch vote:
    - a mafia member cannot possibly die on day 1
    - the serial killer does not die on day 1
    - There is no vote train to deduct information from
    - The mafia + serial killer decide how things proceed
    - We'll most likely arrive to day 2 with no new information to work with

    It is true that the chance of hitting scum is 23%, but with nolynch, the chance of hitting scum is 0%. The mafia isn't going to shoot itself out of pity. I guess we could hope for the serial killer or the vigilante to win the game for us, but eh.

    We do have a rather role-heavy town, which tilts the balance in our favor, but, what information exactly do you expect to have on day 2 that you did not have on day 1? If the investigator and tracker relay info through anonymous notices, the cult can do the same with false messages. At most one of them can step up openly and be protected. And as long as the Prophet lives, any investigation about town status is worth diddly squat, as the confirmed townie could be converted the next (or even the same) day.

    So, to sum things up, you propose that we do nothing, in hopes that the investigator blindly stumbles into a mafia member. Doesn't sound like such a great approach to me, but then again, I'm not a cult member.

    Incidentally, the Sentinel is a tracker, you probably meant the General (investigator).

    Oh, in case anyone is unaware, FoS means Finger of Suspicion, used to denote someone whom the poster suspects of being mafia, but not strongly enough to warrant a vote (yet).


  • TeaniTeani Evening Sky SwedenMember Posts: 1,854 ✭✭✭✭✭
    What Ilyon says is true, there are a lot of disadvantages to going for no lynch, but I don't feel they outweigh the risks of voting someone out. It is more likely that we risk lynching an innocent or one of our power roles than not.

    What we might need is for one of the power roles to step forward, but that should be done tomorrow, since there's no point in exposure today. It would be nice if more people did speak up though, but that's not always the case in these games, I've noticed.



  • KarhastKarhast EnorianMember Posts: 84 ✭✭✭
    I really, really don't trust you not to have considered the full extent of this all, Xenia.

    Consider the Sentinel. The only person they can confirm is the Carnifex, since they leave a body trail. If they see a random person visiting another at night, what does that even tell them? They could be the cult leader, maybe. They could be the Sciomancer. They could be the General. Who's to say? A moment's thought is enough to think of this, but you raise the Sentinel as if they are foolproof - suspicious. For all I know, your plan was to root out the Sentinel and blindly kill whomever they notice sneaking off first.

    And the General, then. They're a very different asset in a game like this: people who turn up innocent one day can very well become Illuminai the day after. On the very likely chance that they investigate an innocent, their time was essentially wasted; the next night might have that same person get converted to a cultist. Unable to really confirm people for being innocent, the General has to rely on hopefully hitting scummers just to be lucky.

    And last of all: the more we wait the more confusion is going to happen. As the game goes on, it doesn't suddenly become 'clear' who the Illuminai are; people will be converted, the Illuminai will get a trust advantage, and things get messy. I advocate voting now, rather than tomorrow, and I'm going to go right ahead with that:

    Vote: Xenia

    For leading the town down all the wrong paths.
  • KelliaraKelliara Member Posts: 469 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 23
    Current Standings:
    Nobody - Xenia, Teani, Zaila, Serrice, Pazradym. (5)
    Zaila - Ilyon. (1)
    Karhast - Koda. (1)
    Xenia - Karhast. (1)

    7 votes needed to lynch.
    Now with 253% more Madness.
    Chibi-Kelli by @Eleanor.
  • KelliaraKelliara Member Posts: 469 ✭✭✭✭
    Time is wasting, good Defenders...

    Don't take too much longer.
    Now with 253% more Madness.
    Chibi-Kelli by @Eleanor.
  • XeniaXenia Member Posts: 886 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I can see your logic, @Ilyon. It does make sense, and the real issue is my own logic was flawed. I forgot all about the General and believed our only clues would come from the Sentinel.

    As for the 'Nobody' vote, I'm open to swaying my vote, though nobody strikes me as voteworthy yet. If there's a scum train, it is likely within the Nobody voters.

    I think Ilyon's a defender. Unsure about everyone else.

    One thing is clear, this round will end if we don't make a concise decision. Karhast is voting me because I tend to speak candidly and provide enough information to be picked apart.

    You ask me, that's a characteristic of a Defender. If you've nothing to lose, why not speak up? If I was lynched today, the Defenders would find they shot and missed.
    image
  • LeharLehar farmMember Posts: 64 ✭✭✭
    While I don't really enjoy the thought of not having a specific person to vote for, I don't see much other choice right now.

    Vote: No lynch.
  • KelliaraKelliara Member Posts: 469 ✭✭✭✭
    The arguments, and deliberations of the best way to proceed carried on into the day, with scant few fingers being pointed here or there. But suspicious glances were thrown between Defenders. Lines being drawn in the mind. Suspicions aroused.

    In the end, however, the Defenders dispersed, either to sleep, or to man their posts for the night, or carry on with other business, determined to solve the mystery tomorrow.


    It is Night 1.

    Night roles, PM me your actions, or if you wish to do nothing.
    Now with 253% more Madness.
    Chibi-Kelli by @Eleanor.
  • KelliaraKelliara Member Posts: 469 ✭✭✭✭
    A bonechilling howl shatters the silence of the night...
    Now with 253% more Madness.
    Chibi-Kelli by @Eleanor.
  • KelliaraKelliara Member Posts: 469 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 25
    There is no sleeping in for the Defenders the next morning. The sun rises, and with it, chaos...

    It would seem in the night the streets of Esterport became a battleground, and while most of the city rested, a small war was waged.

    Blood and scorch marks stain the stones underfoot, drawing the first horrified, curious investigators to the scene at hand.

    @Karhast is sprawled in the middle of the street, eyes wide with what must be shock. The cause of death seems to be odd, there's not a single mark on his body, and he seems to have been simply struck down.

    ...on his finger is a plain ring, seemingly made from pure shadow.

    Karhast has been slain by The Carnifex. He was The General

    The battle didn't end there, though...

    The trail of blood, the scorch marks, scrapes on nearby walls from swung weapons that didn't strike home leads only a short distance away, where there's a second body.

    Battered, burned and bloody, @Lehar sits slumped against the wall, heavy armour visible beneath her cloak, sword still locked in a vice-like grip in her hand-- the weapon is old and heavy, plain and unadorned, save for a single void-black gem that has been sunken into its hilt. The woman herself stares outwards with the empty gaze of the dead, having finally succumed to her wounds sometime in the night, features frozen in a mixture of grim determination and satisfaction.

    Lehar has been slain by The Cult. She was The Carnifex.

    In another part of the city, a woman begins screaming, having stumbled upon a grizzly scene...

    A mangled body has been found. Ripped apart, and devoured until it is little more than scraps of meet on claw and tooth scarred bones. It's difficult to tell who the poor soul was, but a particularly brave onlooker searches through the victims pockets, finding effects that reveal it as @ilyon, torn apart at his post in the night.

    Ilyon has been devoured by The Shapeshifter. He was a Defender.


    There is much left to be done in Esterport today.

    There are cultists to root out, still. And the rumours of a man-eating monster prowling the city have proven true.

    Perhaps worst of all, the Defenders numbers are weakened, having lost two of their number, and an ally in the space of a single night...


    It is Day 2

    The Sciomancer is alive.
    The Sentinel is alive.
    The Prophet is alive.
    The Shapeshifter is alive.
    There are 5 Defenders remaining.

    6 votes are needed to lynch.
    Now with 253% more Madness.
    Chibi-Kelli by @Eleanor.
  • KarhastKarhast EnorianMember Posts: 84 ✭✭✭
    Nnnnnoooooooooooooo
  • PazradymPazradym Member Posts: 92 ✭✭✭
    Well... this just became significantly more difficult. Alright, fine we have a Pit of a day ahead of us, a mess of a night behind us, a cult to stop, and a monster to kill. Lets get to work.... anyone have any thoughts or leads?
    By the divine might of Omei, you are restored to life.
    Omei gives the corpse of a headless cadaver to you.
    Omei offers you a quick wink.

  • TeaniTeani Evening Sky SwedenMember Posts: 1,854 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Alright, that... was a really unexpected turn of events. Quite a bit more violent than I think anyone anticipated. Correct me if I'm wrong, but we now have 7 Defenders, 2 Cultists and a Shapeshifter?

    On the positive side, they didn't manage to convert anyone. However, we lost a lot of people.



  • PazradymPazradym Member Posts: 92 ✭✭✭
    That math sounds right to me.
    By the divine might of Omei, you are restored to life.
    Omei gives the corpse of a headless cadaver to you.
    Omei offers you a quick wink.

  • ArbreArbre Arbrelina Jolie Member, Guildmaster Posts: 1,999 mod
    This may have already been covered, but explain to me please: is it better to have someone converted or killed? Or neither, I guess.
  • XeniaXenia Member Posts: 886 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Well, that was eventful and takes us back to what i thought we had initially to go off of, and that's the Sentinel.

    Nasty business with the Carnifex, but they do have tendencies to act blindly and be more harmful than good.

    Since the cult did not expand tonight, we have only the No Vote train to go off of. Karhast and Ilyon were against it and defenders.

    Ilyon voted for Zaila, Karhast for me.

    I said yesterday that the scum probably voted in on No Vote alongside me. That's: Teani, Zaila, Serrice and Pazradym.

    I still think the Sentinel should step forward so the Sciomancer can keep them safe and the defenders can get some eyes out in the night.
    image
  • ZechsZechs AustinMember Posts: 21
    Without a conversion, we can safely assume that the hidden leader of the Cult of the Illuminai either:

    Attempted to convert their own, without knowledge.
    Attempted to convert one who has already fallen.

    Still, those these events are disturbing, more so is Xenia's request for the Sentinel to appear. After all, infiltration and subtlety are the marks of a great sentinel. Requesting they be brought into the light are the marks of the very cult we seek to destroy...

    My vote is for Xenia.
Sign In or Register to comment.