Mafia: Dead Divinities

Damonicus

Well right now it is on a swing vote with @Lin the deciding factor. If Lin is mafia. then this is game over as one of the townies is voting for me. If Lin votes Macavity and Mac is indeed mafia, then we have the kills for the next stage.

Damonicus

@Macavity: Also if you are townie as I claimed that would make Peri, Dem, Ilyon myself and you the only 5 left. Which means Cia, Trager Lin and Toz are the mafia. So switching your vote really is the only way out currently besides ending the game with Lin's vote.

Macavity

I honestly think that Lin is Varien, keeping in mind that even if Omei sniffed Lin before dying, Lin would have still come back as a townie regardless.  Lin has been on my radar for some time and the only reason I voted for others was because of Dem,  So I say lets get the town to winning place and kill off Lin before its too late!

UNVOTE: Damonicus

VOTE: LIN

Slyphe

DUN DUN DUUUUUUUUUN. 

Ciarelle

It's been a shocking work week and while I've been reading along from my phone, the prospect of replying has been waiting until I've been in front of a proper keyboard. Last night, I decided it was also going to wait until I'd had some sleep.

I did say I'd try and post more, though. I'm probably missing something obvious, but this is what I noticed: 

• The Alexina train happened in a two hour period, with what, in hindsight, were pretty vague reasons but still fair enough concerns.
  
• The Damonicus train started building in the 2-3 hours before I got up, similar times to the Alexina one, with what I thought were pretty decent reasons behind it (I was kind of excited, actually - Damonicus didn't sound quite right to me and Severn-Demarcus was on the same page!). 
  
• Now there's a train on Macavity based on the reasoning that he got on the previous train too quickly. The three early votes occurred in what I think was another 2 hour period or less. I was reading on my phone while on the train/waiting for trains so that's the impression I got but we've clicked over into tomorrow here and all I can see is the date - perhaps someone in another timezone can still confirm the timing there.

I'm just not really sold on the "the Damonicus train formed so quickly, they must be mafia!" thing when we're looking at the same timing for all three of the last trains.

As I said, I find Damonicus a bit off - these vote-only posts really don't help with explanations and his big plan to save us really doesn't seem to have helped much right now. All I see are a lot of dead Celani with our best result being a dead Baelak. With Macavity, yeah, he could be scum. I'm not seeing much of anything to help me one way or another with that. Ditto with Lin. With both of them, there's just a lot of following Demarcus' votes and not much else. A lot of you are just as fishy (Periluna's disappearing for all the votes so far before suddenly reappearing to leap onto that train? Trager comes and goes? Where IS Lin? Damonicus' two word posts?). Hell, apparently I am too.

For the Macavity train, the compelling reasons to vote for him are:

Demarcus: "Or you could say "Macavity and Toz are both bad guys."" - ?

Periluna: "My notes have Macavity as a "more than likely" on the scummeter" - care to share some of those notes, maybe?

Ilyon: "The damonicus train has been building up too fast" - see above comments. All the trains build up too fast.

Damonicus: "Vote: Macavity" - ...

For this new Lin thing, I got:

Macavity: "Lin has been on my radar for some time and the only reason I voted for others was because of Dem"

I'm fine with changing my vote if I'm presented with reasons to do so, but right now... no. The vaguely threatening "we need all the five non-mafia to vote for Macavity OR YOU MUST BE MAFIA" just feels like a lot more string-pulling, really, by someone wanting me to jump up and do exactly what they say without thinking too much, and that sort of logic seems to be how we've ended up with our numbers so low.

Ciarelle

Yes, I did just say you're all FISHY in a game being run by Slyphe. GO ME.

Ilyon

@Ciarelle - you do realize that if you are not mafia, then Lin is, and thus waiting is a spectacularly bad idea, right? We have two 4:4 trains, and the one with Demarcus is definitely on a mafia member, because if Macavity weren't mafia, then the four mafia members would have joined and won by now.

Ilyon

Which is to say, if you want to wait for something, then you should remove your vote for the time being.

Toz

We don't have 2 trains of 4. We have a train of 3, a train of 4 (that you're on) and 1 train of 1 (on Lin).

Demarcus

Damonicus said:

@Macavity: Also if you are townie as I claimed that would make Peri, Dem, Ilyon myself and you the only 5 left. Which means Cia, Trager Lin and Toz are the mafia. So switching your vote really is the only way out currently besides ending the game with Lin's vote.

I promise you this scenario is not possible based on the information I have. (The who is a townie, who is mafia scenario)

Demarcus

Macavity said:

I honestly think that Lin is Varien, keeping in mind that even if Omei sniffed Lin before dying, Lin would have still come back as a townie regardless.  Lin has been on my radar for some time and the only reason I voted for others was because of Dem,  So I say lets get the town to winning place and kill off Lin before its too late!

UNVOTE: Damonicus

VOTE: LIN

You know, I read this and went "Wow, this is really horrible logic." I relate it to a basketball team going, "OK, we're down by 1 point with 42 seconds to go. Clearly we need to take a shot from beyond half court and pray that it makes it!"

Lin *could* be Varian, true. But with 3 other Mafia members out there and we need to get a single Mafia member instead of the head hauncho, you want to go on the 1:16 chance that Lin is Varian? With who is left in the game, who I know has been sniffed (two sniffs as Townies, Lin and another, and we know at least one of them is a townie for sure) gives us a better than 50/50 chance of hitting  Mafia based on a completely random vote.

So, in short, I re-affirm my vote for Macavity.

Macavity

@Demarcus currently your leadership in this mafia game has been really bad, in that you have not managed to hit a single mafia person out there yet.  Let me break this down for you a bit more...

If Lin was not a mafia, then we would have seen many others jumping on this train from the 4 mafia members out there just to get the kill and end the game.

With my vote and 4 others that would push the votes to 5 and thus killing a townie, but you do not see that happening, which I believe proves even more that Lin is a badie in this case and we need to vote for her.  

If I die then the game is over.  So I ask that 4 others join with me to kill of a bad guy and let us win this game!

Periluna

Cause 2 hours is enough time for everyone from different time zones to come together...

Damonicus

Someone want to call Lin?

Demarcus

Macavity said:

@Demarcus currently your leadership in this mafia game has been really bad, in that you have not managed to hit a single mafia person out there yet.  Let me break this down for you a bit more...

If Lin was not a mafia, then we would have seen many others jumping on this train from the 4 mafia members out there just to get the kill and end the game.

With my vote and 4 others that would push the votes to 5 and thus killing a townie, but you do not see that happening, which I believe proves even more that Lin is a badie in this case and we need to vote for her.  

If I die then the game is over.  So I ask that 4 others join with me to kill of a bad guy and let us win this game!

I appreciate the constructive criticism of my "leadership". Losing Auresae and then Omei right away has left me so much time and a vast think tank to go over the endless posting to pick out who was a bad guy.

I will, however, point out for you Mafia Macavity, that I did pick out Sarita for you with my "leadership" pretty darn spot on, soooo...

Also, Sarita toasting one of the Celani means I have 1 less round to get posts and figure out what everyone is. At this point, even if you aren't Mafia, you're being a terrible townie and you should probably die anyways.

Macavity

I should die anyways??  So you would rather throw the game away just to get rid of me?

Ciarelle

Ilyon - I'm if Damonicus is a townie, then he can't die with my vote. There are only three of them. If Macavity is a townie, then my vote is actually going to kill him more quickly and the only reason I can see you wanting that is if YOU are actually mafia. Lin's got one vote so far and that's definitely not going to help things.

How do we know, exactly, that Macavity is definitely mafia? Demarcus is Severn, not Omei. He got two or three checks from Draiman before he got lynched and that's it. 

Periluna - Yeah, actually, it is. I got on an actual train around 8am and the train was forming. By the time the preschoolers finished their exercise and I reluctantly put down the iphone to go teach my first class, it was not yet 10am. With Alexina, the first post was at ~4am, and she was dead by the time I sat down around 7:30am and looked back wondering "what the unicorns happened here overnight?" If you REALLY want me to keep going with the thrills of my daily routine, I can?

Anyone got any actual reasons here?

Toz

Nah, we're just all hurling fireballs and praying. Kinda how it has been all game.

Demarcus

Ciarelle said:

How do we know, exactly, that Macavity is definitely mafia? Demarcus is Severn, not Omei. He got two or three checks from Draiman before he got lynched and that's it. 

Here's how: There are 4 mafia and 5 townies. I am a confirmed townie (Severn... well, I guess "confirmed" is technically not accurate, but the lack of a separate role claim and that nobody wanted to waste their shot to confirm that I was Severn suggests that I am in fact who I say I am. Which I am.) so that leaves 4 votes for each side up in the air. The Mafia need exactly 1 townie to vote for another townie and the game is over. I voted for Damonicus, and we rapidly reached 5 votes, and then I unvoted and voted for Macavity. The Macavity train has yet to reach 5, and if he is a townie as he claims, he would be dead since the 4 Mafia would have jumped on the 1 townie they needed (me) voting on a townie. Kind of like how they jumped on Damonicus. Hence we have a pretty good list of who we think are Mafia (Macavity, Toz, Traeger). The fact that none of them have changed their vote further reinforce that all three are Mafia, and Macavity trying to start this train on Lin in an attempt to capitalize on the uncertainty that Lin is Varian is pretty much the last nail in the coffin for him. Since Lin is the only uncasted vote, and Lin isn't going to vote for himself, it was a terribly poor choice.

Toz

The logic's kind of flawed there, seeing as you threw out a vote AND Damonicus voted for himself, and there was still no lynch. And there's still no lynch now, nor will there BE a lynch. I'd theorize whoever the mafia are, half of them aren't paying much attention at all, if not more. Seeing as your 'attempted trap' managed to catch innocents and put you at risk of losing the game, all you've succeeded in doing is muddling a lot of things further.

Demarcus

Toz said:

The logic's kind of flawed there, seeing as you threw out a vote AND Damonicus voted for himself, and there was still no lynch. And there's still no lynch now, nor will there BE a lynch. I'd theorize whoever the mafia are, half of them aren't paying much attention at all, if not more. Seeing as your 'attempted trap' managed to catch innocents and put you at risk of losing the game, all you've succeeded in doing is muddling a lot of things further.

And if both trains (not counting Lin...) are on a Townie, the game would be over by now, period. Either Macavity or Damonicus are mafia, and my money is on Macavity.

Periluna

doot doot

We still going?

@Slyphe - I think we're deadlocked here.

Ilyon

Yeah, we're waiting for the fifth non-mafia member to (switch) vote to Macavity, or for the fourth mafia member to (switch) vote to Damonicus. No other way out of this.

Macavity

I am going to switch back to my original vote as Damonicus, I believe, used the voting for himself ploy to save himself as the Mafia and try to push the votes to another, which it did, on to me, who is a townie.  I really believe he is mafia and trying to throw you all off the true goal of killing one of them off.  Remember we only have one last chance on this, and if we are wrong, the game is over.

UNVOTE: Lin

VOTE: Damonicus

Macavity

um so, can we all agree to vote off Lin just so we can get this going again??  

Demarcus

Macavity said:

um so, can we all agree to vote off Lin just so we can get this going again??  

So you're admitting that Lin is Varian and you're one of the Ascended?

Macavity

not at all, just that clearly Lin is not paying attention to this thread and we are at a stand still.  I do believe that Lin is Varian, and think that killing Lin off would allow the townies to get ahead and stay in the game.  

I am simply trying to move this game along, which you seem to be set on keeping it at a stand still

Demarcus

Macavity said:

not at all, just that clearly Lin is not paying attention to this thread and we are at a stand still.  I do believe that Lin is Varian, and think that killing Lin off would allow the townies to get ahead and stay in the game.  

I am simply trying to move this game along, which you seem to be set on keeping it at a stand still

I figure there are a few limited permutations of our current scenario.

Permutation 1: Lin is Varian, Damonicus is a Townie, Macavity is a Baddie

Outcome: Lin will vote for Damonicus, game over.

Permutation 2: Lin is Varian, Damonicus is a Baddie, Macavity is a Townie

Outcome: Lin will vote for Macavity, game over.

Permutation 3: Lin is Varian, Damonicus is a Baddie, Macavity is a Baddie

Outcome: ... WHY!?

Permutation 4: Lin is Varian, Damoncius is a Townie, Macavity is a Townie

Outcome: Game over.

Permutation 5: Lin is a Townie, Damonicus is a Baddie, Macavity is a Townie

Outcome: Lin votes for Damonicus, game goes on. Lin votes for Macavity, game over.

Permutation 6: Lin is a Townie, Damonicus is a Townie, Macavity is a Baddie

Outcome: Lin votes for Damonicus, game over. Lin votes for Mavavity, game goes on.

Permutation 7: Lin is a Townie, Damonicus is a Baddie, Macavity is a Baddie

Outcome: Again, I ask, WHY!?

Permutation 8: Lin is a Townie, Damonicus is a Townie, Macavity is a Townie

Outcome: Seriously? This shouldn't even be considered, game over.

Removing Permutations 3, 4, 7, and 8 (since in all of these scenarios, the game is either over, or the baddies are just toying with us, in which case Surrender at 20?)

If either Permutation 1 or 2 were true, I'd just ask that @Slyphe just go ahead and vote for Lin. However, since that would appear to be a reasonable course of action and it hasn't happened, I would wager that 5 and 6 are what we're stuck on and waiting for Townie Lin to cast his vote and see if he makes the "right call", whichever that is.

Ilyon

Actually, we can simplify that analysis even further, owing to the fact that we know that Demarcus is a townie (okay, it's not 100%-surefire proven, but in the lack of a second roleclaim, I think we can agree on it being true). So the options are:

1. Macavity is townie, Lin is townie. This means we have 4 active mafia, and as Demarcus has voted for Macavity, the 4 mafia could win by voting for Macavity as well. However, this has not happened, hence this scenario is FALSE.

2. Macavity is townie, Lin is mafia. As Demarcus has voted for Macavity, this would mean that if all 3 active mafia and at least one townie vote for Macavity, the mafia wins. Again, this has not happened. What are the chances that all active townies would refuse to vote along with Demarcus? Very very low, I'd say, so I'd say we can safely consider this scenario to likewise be FALSE.

That means that Macavity is effectively guaranteed to be mafia. Now to the other two options.

3. Macavity is mafia, Lin is mafia. This means that one townie is still voting for Damonicus instead, and once Lin comes back, mafia wins. If this scenario is true, said townie needs to switch vote to Macavity to get the game moving. In three days, this has not happened, meaning we either have some very stubborn townie, or this scenario is not true. Macavity's insistence to vote for Lin also supports the claim that this scenario is unlikely.

4. Macavity is mafia, Lin is townie. This means that all four people on the Damonicus train are mafia, and all four people on the Macavity train are townies, and we are waiting for the Townie Lin to vote Macavity to get the game moving. As the previous scenarios are unlikely or wrong, this one is the most likely one.

Periluna

Slyphe said:

- I'll try my best to keep day rounds going as smoothly as possible. If I notice things start slugging off, I'm going to announce that there's 'x hours left in the round' upon which point the person with the highest number of votes will be lynched.

Pretty sure the game has started "slugging off" here. I actually forgot we were even playing until just now. @Slyphe! @Lin is probably not coming back to vote if he hasn't already.