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Comments
As for Lehar, I think that's quite plausible. Been quiet for a big chunk of the game, which is a smart move for an important role such as that. If the Templar can keep Lehar protected, we should be able to whittle down the list and have a constant resource until everyone's exposed.
...Unless, y'know, the Iosyne worshipper pops in and does their thing. Not sure if the Knight's protection protects against being primed, but.
The messages mentioned three people - Xenia, Jami, and Sibatti. Xenia, as we know, was a citizen. It seems safe to assume that Sibatti is a citizen, too - the syssin wouldn't be drawing attention to one of their own.
This, then, leads me into suspecting Jami. The first message mentions her, it looks like the syssin may have been trying to get us to trust one of their own. More interestingly, as soon as Sibatti casted a vote on Jami, a train formed on her instead, which would seem like an attempt to prevent Jami from being targeted.
As such, I am going to:
VOTE: Jami
At this point, as @Lehar is a more-or-less confirmed Psychic since no one has argued against it, it gives us an huge advantage of a confirmed, trustworthy citizen. It will be a lot easier for us to work with logic from someone we know is out to do this right. He should be more than safe for now, despite the reveal - the Knight has a starburst tattoo and isn't even probable to be hit, so he can and should keep his protection on Lehar. It'll get a lot harder for Syssin to try put the breaks or muddle up things with even a single confirmed citizen.
I'll check on this later and actually read things more carefully, and get some voting done. We haven't lost yet, guys. It's a rough start, but it often is. We can easily pull through to a win still.
I didn't mind hopping on the train when the train makes sense. Sibatti looks set up, just like you claimed originally. Was pretty slick. Defend her while throwing suspicion on me so you have ammo against the both of us during the day. The more unlikely it is that she's scum the more other people want to kill her.
Your plan for arsonist target reveals sounds like at least one of the mafia have been targeted so you're trying to narrow down who it is and take them out before they light the match.
Another tell was wanting to lynch whoever if Sibatti ended up being revealed as town through lynching. No townpeople ever post like that. You're posting with foreknowledge of how Sibatti is going to flip once killed, trying to set up the next lynch after that. If Townies were trying to forecast the future they would be focusing on who to lynch if their lynch target flipped Mafia, because they are trying to lynch Mafia and naturally lean towards that result as it's the desired one. You, however, make no mention of anything along that branch and instead only focus on what to do if she flips Town because you know she will flip Town.
Re: Hopping on the Sibatti train/it being set up, etc. etc.
I started that Sibatti train the last round to get her to post. I had no intention of seeing her actually lynched. Why was this a safe bet? Because half the town had already split towards other trains at that time. She was in no danger of actually being killed. And would you look at that, she posted afterwards. Mission accomplished.
Deciding who to vote for/second point:
Looking back, I don't know how I didn't catch that goof. That unvote was supposed to be for you, actually, not Karhast - voted for you that round, and you were the one my suspicion was on. You were putting in quite a bit of effort to see Sibatti lynched; I don't get how saying "If Sibatti isn't actually mafia, then I'm going to be even more suspicious of her biggest adversary that I'm already not at all convinced about."
"Citizens would focus on if their lynch target flipped mafia, not if it flipped civilian, you're clrly mafia"
...You're playing with words here and talking semantics in an attempt to make me look guilty. I was defending Sibatti in the beginning, you were on the offensive. My goal was still to kill the mafia - you, who I suspected at the time - and so I had a good feeling that if Sibatti turned out innocent after you pushing so hard, we'd have our mafia. You're grasping at straws with that argument.
Finally, it's in nobody's interest - mafia or citizen - for the arsonist to remain alive. I don't think it's quite sunk in that right now they're capable of handing this game over to the Syssin if they have targeted two civilians already (which is pretty likely). Sure, mafia can skip the folks that the arsonist has targeted, that is if they want to risk being blown up themselves with every round that passes by where they attempt to let the arsonist do their job for them.
You're really, really pushing, unlike you have for any other votes in this game thus far, and only after this idea of trying to squash the arsonist.
Afraid you'll get killed before you get to set off your spiders?
6 votes needed for a lynch, and there's only 5 town left including the Psychic and Knight. The drunk wins if they die, so they have no reason to help the town. The Arsonist can hide among the town long enough to eradicate the mafia and torch everyone in the end or continue hiding and letting the town mislynch. You know how the arsonist can lose and the Syssin gain control? If the arsonist dies to a town lynch.
Really, the town needs the Arsonist alive, we need you to kill them and the drunk for us, or this game is over for town.
Only mafia would want to kill the Arsonist right now. The Town needs them and have a bigger threat to deal with, /you/.
You're really, really pushing, unlike you have for any other votes in this game thus far, and only after I exposed you as mafia.
Afraid you'll get killed before you run this town?
You're really, really pushing, unlike you have for any other SCHEME in this game thus far, etc etc etc.
UNVOTE SIBATTI
VOTE JAMI
I'm also suspicious of Axius for his comment of backing Sibatti after their brief voting on Jami and then switching to a citizen to lynch.
If those 2 primed people were both citizens, you're left with a total of 3 citizens remaining.
5 votes to lynch, 3 citizens remaining. The citizens will have no choice but to try and persuade the arsonist and the drunk to vote with them to get a Syssin - and that is only assuming all the remaining citizens know who each other are and unify, which clearly isn't the case as you can see right in front of you.
...But why would the drunk care about siding with the town, when they could make a spectacle of themselves to get lynched right now and win? There goes another needed vote.
If the arsonist were to be killed this round, we've got a higher chance of going into the next round with better odds, or even a majority if the Syssin would happen to hit the Knight tonight.
Since @Jami is getting a lot of attention at the moment, I will say that I'm slightly more inclined to think she's a citizen at the moment. Both she and Xenia were named as innocent in the fake notes, and Xenia was confirmed innocent through death, while Jami has the benefit of an investigation. I'm not saying she can't be the General, but we still have statistically low chances of that. I'm not ready to jump on a vote train for her right now though when the town seems to be at more of a disadvantage.
I think @Emir's accusation of @Buford may be worth considering as well. On the one hand, it will help us to know who Iosyne's follower is. On the other, Emir's reaction to the idea sort of made me feel like he have some nefarious reason for not wanting it to work. Maybe his house is crawling with spiders and he doesn't want to let on for some reason, or maybe he's the one sending spiders around himself? Then again, maybe his suspicion regarding Buford was more accurate. Either one of them could be worth looking into, in my opinion.
Until/unless I hear something else, or maybe Lehar has a better idea, I've taken a look at past vote trains. A few people stood out as voting for now-known citizens (I'm counting Kelliara, Pazradym, Xenia, and Lehar here) and switching their votes to trains too. Starting from the beginning with the first person who did this:
VOTE: Axius
(Round one - voted for Kelliara, switched to Lehar, was third on the Karhast train attempt, was named as suspicious by Kelliara who then died. Round two - voted for Jami, switched to the Pazradym train. Current - voted for Jami again.)
VOTE: Axius
Regardless. It looks to be going to be @Buford, @Emir, @Jami or @Axius this round.
I can't really make out the guilty party in the Buford x Emir love story right now, beyond two people counter-voting each other, so I'll save speculating on it for a later time. I honestly don't like either of them right now. Emir's self-voting was a strange move, and I'm not sure he really hoped for it to stick judging by how late it came, but Bufford sounds weirdly angry, which comes off to me as a sign of being nervous.
Then there is the Axius and Jami vote trains - Jami was Xenia's vote for the first round and Axius was one of Kelliara's four named suspects (Lehar, Axius, Sibatti, Emir) during the very same round, both vague negatives but it was the first round, so. Not exactly what any of us could call conclusive, so we're back to analyzing their behavior.
But yeah, I'd like to wait to hear @Lehar's opinion before I vote as he's the only 100% confirmed citizen. The reason I do this is that Syssin don't need a lot of supportive votes at this point to make a kill happen on their own, if they find a target.
At this point, you look most likely to be any of these three: the Drunk, a Syssin who wants to be seen as the Drunk or the Follower pretending to be Drunk. I'm not gonna vote for you and risk your potential drunkeness killing off all our winning chances, but I'd also prefer not to vote with you, since it feels like whatever you're of the three, your winning condition is probably different than mine.
That said, I can get behind the logic about @Axius. This is going to be a pivotal round and unless anyone else has a better strategy, I'll go ahead and
VOTE: @AXIUS
Dearest Knight, won't you visit me this evening?
This Axius train, hrm, the fact that Sarita voted for exactly the same people as Axius did doesn't exactly fill me with confidence, as by that logic Sarita would be syssin, too.
I'll wait how things develop, but for now I think the case against Jami is stronger, so staying with that one for the time being.
Buford (1): Emir
Emir (1): Buford
Jami (3): Axius, Ilyon, Teani
Axius (3): Sarita, Sibatti, Lehar
Not voted: Jami, Valingar
There are 6 votes needed to lynch.
"The smell of dusty fur, sweet smoke, waiting and patience, a thing that time cannot kill. The moth that candles won't burn."
VOTE: AXIUS
Vote: @Axius
UNVOTE: Jami
VOTE: Axius