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Ahh, never mind. I found the thread and figured it out. Bad luck, that.
While I was in the shower, I realized that the Lover had a good reason to claim as the Fencer. Even if someone tries to shoot you at night, your bulletproof vest absorbs it, amrite? So the only way you die is to lynch. If you claim the Fencer, unless someone bothers to investigate you which is pointless unless the power roles rally around you, you get to skate by free and clear. Everyone presumes you're innocent, and neither the Dirty Cop nor the Mafia are going to target you at night for fear of getting stabbed through the heart with a foil when they bring a gun to a fencing bout. So, there is the off-chance that one or the other is the Lover. Either way, it's still a win-win for the town to kill one (or both) of them.
Vote: NoVote
Unvote: Slyphe
Vote: Xenia
Unvote Aryanne
Vote Xenia
Unvote: Aren
Vote: Parker
Vote: Xenia
I am the Warden of the prison. When I made that initial slip up admitting to getting a PM, I panicked. I didn't want to claim warden because well, the warden can not protect themselves. I saw myself as a deadman walking no matter what I did so I studied the various roles and decided that I had the best potential of helping the town by taking the sniper shot, offering a networking chance to the other power roles, and informing them of my true role.
My hopes were that the real fencer would read into my request to hold off a train in order to allow for further discussion as the actions of a town aligned person, or perhaps, would simply keep quiet. I have no reason to believe that Serrice is lying.
This turn of events must likely be a feeding day for the Mafia, making them think they have another easy game as they all know that neither of us are within their ranks. Demarcus' reasoning and argument would ensure that two town power roles were dead by day 2. His push for this, the seed of doubt planted within the minds of those who may have been willing to claim their roles and gleam what could be from it all, has made me feel certain that he likely is aligned with the mafia.
Vote: Demarcus
Well, now the Innocent definitely shouldn't claim if that's true.
As for being suspicious of me? Nah. I fully realized that in bringing up the PM information I would mark myself as a vanilla Townie, which is absolutely the worst thing I could do for myself. I'm a dead man walking. There is a lot of information that can be gleaned from what has been posted, and if you think I'm *that* good to pretend to not notice the thread and then bring it up in a knee-jerk post, well, I'm flattered. I really am.
For those that don't know why being a confirmed townie is bad, you're one less random-lynch for day rounds, meaning an increased likelihood of hitting mafia. Typically the Mafia will target those that have been confirmed via Investigation or an awkward slip-up. They could choose to go after randoms to try for power roles. It depends. But in general, people knowing that you're free and clear is bad juju.
@Moirean I didn't see the part about sniper rifles passing the bulletproof vest. I just read the "wears a bulletproof vest that will stop any attempts to kill them at night." I assumed the 'any' was in fact all-inclusive and meant *any* attempt, but I see now the sniper rifle superscedes that and it should actually read "will stop all but a kill attempt with a sniper rifle." Or something to that effect.
On one hand, we could wait and see if someone counter-claims warden now, (which of course I think we'll do regardless of whatever ELSE we do) but in general, I don't feel comfortable voting for Xenia yet.
@Demarcus
Why would you even think that "marking [yourself] as a vanilla townie" is "is absolutely the worst thing [you] could do for [your]self"? EVERYONE wants to come across as a vanilla townie in the beginning, as that makes you the lowest-priority-target possible. The Mafia wants to kill the power roles at night and the townies want to kill the mafia during the day. I expect several baddies who've been slow-to-respond, sitting in the rafters, are going to use that very ploy to lessen potential suspicion, "Oh! I didn't get a message! I thought it hadn't started yet!"
Suspicion increased markedly.
Vote: XeniaVote: Parker
@Serrice - Uhh, no. If Xenia IS the freaking warden, then we lose that. At the least, she can protect SOMEONE for a night round - if we lynch her, we lose even that.
This is getting really messy though and, for the first time ever, I'm considering to vote for a No Lynch while people are investigated.
Unvote: Parker
I'll try explaining why you DON'T want to be a confirmed vanilla townie one more time:
Say there are 18 people. 4 mafia and a loose cannon. So there are 13 townies. We're all trying to come to a consensus on who to lynch. If we know that Person X is NOT Mafia, we're down to 12 townie targets versus 5 legit targets. If the Mafia kills non-confirmed townies at night, they're dwindling that pool of other players while the town retains an advantage of having confirmed townies alive, skewing the lynches in their favor by just that much more. So, in our case, you and I are good to go, meaning we have 11 innocent targets and 5 bad ones. A 31.25% chance of hitting scum on a purely random lynch. Say we hit a townie. At night, the Lover and the Mafia both kill not you or I. Suddenly it is 8 unknown innocents versus 5 unknown baddies. Odds raise to 38.5% for a random lynch hitting scum. Now, if they kill you and I, they still have those 10 innocents to hide amongst. Brings the chance from 38.5% to 33.3% (assuming the Lover targets me and the Mafia targets you, or the other way around.) Does that make sense?
Also, being "suspicious" of someone who has all but confirmed via game mechanics that you're innocent, other than basically marking you to die at night, is an awfully odd way to repay them. But hey.
@Moirean, this entire bit in particular. I have been rolling it around my head, trying to understand how two mafia members, both claiming the fencer, would be a smart move. They expose half of their force as false fencers, they possibly get the real fencer to claim, but ultimately know that nobody else but themselves currently have possession of a sniper rifle. It just doesn't add up to me, I would never go with that plan. What it does do is prevent people from talking to each other, claiming roles, and forestalling any information being shared between the town.
I didn't respond for a long time because I was mulling the possibilities over in my head. First off, why would the fencer out themselves if they knew the sniper was their only way to be killed without retribution?
There were only two logical explanations that I could come up with:
1. The fencer just had a knee jerk reaction to say, "hey, that's my role and this person is lying, all should know," without really thinking about about the repercussions. Something that perhaps those who don't play mafia too often (like Serrice) would probably do.
2. Is the Mafia and wanted to try and prevent people from talking in day 1.
Personally, I'm leaning more towards the first reason, I think that Demarcus is probably mafia trying to ensure two deaths off the town by day 2. Even if you guys don't lynch one of us, it's still very possible to happen because there are two killing factions out there who may very well want to see town roles die off early.
I don't think there should be any more power role claims, though, not yet at least. I mean, the way I see it, I may get lucky and jail the right person at night, assuming you all believe me and don't lynch me, and then we have one or perhaps both Serrice and I alive tomorrow.
Unvote Parker
Because I fail at recognizing avatars. However, you made more votes than the two you have claimed, so I'll be remembering that discrepancy...
Uhhhh.
I don't really think Demarcus is "confirmed" at all. In fact, I definitely see where Xenia is coming from, now that he's hammered in over and over just how confirmed he is. HE is the one who brought up the power role pm (which I will be dubbing the P3) that's now had TWO of our power roles out themselves. He basically set the bar for when was too soon to be posting, first citing that he thought the game wasn't starting until a day later (to explain away why he wasn't around until then) and then casting a net of potential guilt over everyone who had posted before him who isn't a known forum junkie - which is silly, by the way, since it's absolutely conceivable that all of us would be watching forums in anticipation of the game getting started. And because of the delicious charm drama (the rage thread was absolutely BLOWING UP at the same time as this).
Still, fishing expeditions and all that, and this net managed to haul in Xenia making a mistake and talking about her PM. Her second mistake, claiming as the fencer, then revealed a second power role as Serrice counter-claimed. Not only did these two get outted in a direct response to his own actions, he is pushing for a lynch on them, claiming that they could BOTH BE mafia.
On top of that, he then makes quite a heavy case for why he's a confirmed townie because of this situation he himself created, and subsequently why that means he's completely off the radar for a lynch vote.
Finally, he suggests that maybe the Innocent should ALSO reveal themselves.
It's also kind of a lame way to sniff out mafia. It's really meta and kinda against the spirit of the game, imo.
I'm going to go with Xenia and vote for Demarcus.