Mafia: The Return of Ashtan

Periluna · August 2013

@Demarcus: I listed Aren as suspicious but didn't vote for her because she's actually -posted-. My vote went to the person that has posted little to no information about themselves.

That being said, I'm sticking to my vote and not jumping on this Llok train. I agree that he's downright suspicious, but I'm not buying that he's a bad guy. I would suggest holding off until we know for sure. As Moi said, at least he's providing logic and not just jumping on a random train.

Etrigan · August 2013

I agree with @Moirean and @Periluna. This is a disaster.

Demarcus · August 2013

Moirean said:

Despite how you may feel about Llok's posting, his point remains true: killing off citizens - any citizens - means we have fewer numbers to stave off the mafia with. Killing him will just waste a round if he's innocent, and leave us with TWO less people. Numbers are what matter.

Llok has logic to his stuff. I don't think it's very GOOD logic, but I think we have better targets right now. See my analysis on the last page.

I don't seem to understand why anyone would defend another player unless they knew they what side they were on and the person doing the defending would benefit from their survival.

At any rate, I figure anyone I vote for at this point has a 4/14 probability of being Mafia, casting everything else aside. @Omei is right, Llok has become too much of a hinderance to this game than an asset.

That being said, Llok in his latest rant is, if I'm getting this right, that we shouldn't kill citizens. It's going to happen. Moirean, your logic that killing him if he's innocent remains true for ANYONE who is innocent. Why don't you just tell me the sky appears to be blue due to Raleigh scattering?

Your play gives something for others to focus on? Then we focus on the people that are focusing on your? So that other people can focus on the people that are focusing on the people that are focusing on you? You're getting at circular logic.

Your first real substance post and it is awful. My vote standsl

Llok · August 2013

Latest rant? Right okay.

Let me put it this way. I won't take a vote that has, in my eyes, a high risk of killing a civ unless that person targets me.

Demarcus has featured heavily in this game and only civilians have been hit. With another possibly following.

He, on the other hand seems gunhoe about killing civilians. Ah well, it happens, right?

My post has also provided the perfect deflection from Aren and haven't people used it? Aren being highly suspected by prominent(or just loud) figures.

Demarcus · August 2013

Llok "Sorry bro but people following you all game will end up losing."

So it's OK for you to follow me to failure if we're voting for Aren, to the point you URGED everyone to vote for Aren, but now you're in the crosshairs and only now you bring this up? Got it. My vote really stands and no one will be convincing me otherwise.

And I'm not gungho about killing civilians. I'm all for making the best decision based on contradictions, vague accusations and faulty logic.

On the other hand, I'm not so afraid of it to Vote NOOOOOOOOooooooobody. (did I get that right?)

Moirean · August 2013

I don't seem to understand why anyone would defend another player unless they knew they what side they were on and the person doing the defending would benefit from their survival.

I'm not defending him. I'm saying that this game is about numbers. You guys are saying that we should kill him because he's annoying, not because he's mafia. That's directly hurting our numbers. I'm trying to get us a win and increasing the mafia's relative numbers out of spite certainly isn't helping us get there.

That being said, Llok in his latest rant is, if I'm getting this right, that we shouldn't kill citizens. It's going to happen. Moirean, your logic that killing him if he's innocent remains true for ANYONE who is innocent. Why don't you just tell me the sky appears to be blue due to Raleigh scattering?

Randomly hyperbolic, and unnecessarily bordering on rude. Given that you guys are lynching Llok - while openly stating, "yeah, he might be a citizen, but I don't care" - it seems that you DO need to be reminded that citizen numbers ARE important. Again, I'm not defending him. I'm disagreeing with the common vote train.

Your play gives something for others to focus on? Then we focus on the people that are focusing on your? So that other people can focus on the people that are focusing on the people that are focusing on you? You're getting at circular logic.

I have no idea what you are saying here. Can you try rephrasing it?

Your first real substance post and it is awful. My vote standsl

This post is just downright rude, and it implied that not only have you not been reading my posts, you've forgotten about posts you yourself have made. I made this post, and several posts down you posted with my exact same logic, as if it was new information. Note that Demarcus' post came after the night round ended, when it was too late to warn people away from publically ordering sniffs.

Now, my hackles are raised, mostly because I've been accused of making, I dunno, what? Empty posts? When I've spent quite a lot of time and energy reviewing the thread and trying to make my posts be thoughtful and filled with analysis.

Play nice. There's no need to be jerks, even if you're a Mafia trying to frame someone or fight for the town or whatever you're doing.

Llok · August 2013

Almost. That was not my logic for the first no vote though

Demarcus · August 2013

Moirean said:

I don't seem to understand why anyone would defend another player unless they knew they what side they were on and the person doing the defending would benefit from their survival.

I'm not defending him. I'm saying that this game is about numbers. You guys are saying that we should kill him because he's annoying, not because he's mafia. That's directly hurting our numbers. I'm trying to get us a win and increasing the mafia's relative numbers out of spite certainly isn't helping us get there.

That being said, Llok in his latest rant is, if I'm getting this right, that we shouldn't kill citizens. It's going to happen. Moirean, your logic that killing him if he's innocent remains true for ANYONE who is innocent. Why don't you just tell me the sky appears to be blue due to Raleigh scattering?

Randomly hyperbolic, and unnecessarily bordering on rude. Given that you guys are lynching Llok - while openly stating, "yeah, he might be a citizen, but I don't care" - it seems that you DO need to be reminded that citizen numbers ARE important. Again, I'm not defending him. I'm disagreeing with the common vote train.

Your play gives something for others to focus on? Then we focus on the people that are focusing on your? So that other people can focus on the people that are focusing on the people that are focusing on you? You're getting at circular logic.

I have no idea what you are saying here. Can you try rephrasing it?

Your first real substance post and it is awful. My vote standsl

This post is just downright rude, and it implied that not only have you not been reading my posts, you've forgotten about posts you yourself have made. I made this post, and several posts down you posted with my exact same logic, as if it was new information. Note that Demarcus' post came after the night round ended, when it was too late to warn people away from publically ordering sniffs.

Now, my hackles are raised, mostly because I've been accused of making, I dunno, what? Empty posts? When I've spent quite a lot of time and energy reviewing the thread and trying to make my posts be thoughtful and filled with analysis.

Play nice. There's no need to be jerks, even if you're a Mafia trying to frame someone or fight for the town or whatever you're doing.

Sorry Moi, none of that was directed at you at all. The defending was a generality, but if you feel targetted thats fine. Otherwise, everything I've posted has been directed at people other than you. My sincerest apologies if you feel offended or targetted, your thoughtful analysis is appreciated.

As for the circular logic: Llok claims he's trying to get people to focus on him so he can focus on those people. What's the next step after that? Those people are going to focus on him more so he can focus more on them? It is a god-awful strategy for civilian and mafia alike and is confusing and disruptive at best.

Additionally, I don't recall that exact quote of saying that I don't care if he's a civilian. But, to be clear, I'm saying I think he's mafia, but if he turns out to be a civilian that the net loss due to the resulting reduction in confusion would be a positive in light of the loss of a civilian.

Llok · August 2013

I really don't understand how you're confused but okay

Demarcus · August 2013

Here is Llok requested math. Feel free to interpret it yourself, I don't have the time to run a simulation based on these %'s to get a sampling of what the probably outcomes are going to be. I even tipped it in favor of the mafia assuming we don't know that Omei is the Sentaari, and I also assumed that the mafia succeed in killing a citizen each night.

At present we have a 4/15 (27% chance) of lynching a mafia member.

The following round, if we fail to lynch a mafia member, our odds improve to 4/13 (31%), otherwise they fall to 3/13 (23%).

The next day, failing again to lynch a mafia member brings us to 4/11 (36%) for 2 consecutive failures, or 3/11 (27%) for a failure and success, or success and failure (interchangeable), and 2/11 (18%) for 2 consecutive successes.

The following day, 3 consecutive failures brings us to 4/9 (44%), 2 failures and a success to 3/9 (33%), 1 failure and 2 successes 2/9 (22%), and 3 consecutive successes at 1/9 (11%).

Then, 4 consecutive failures brings us to 4/7, with a mafia win. 3 failures and a success brings us to 3/7 (43%), 2 failures and 2 successes 2/7 (29%), 1 failures and 3 successes at 1/7 (14%), and 4 successes to a town win.

If we make it to the following day on that 43% chance, we'd be at 2/5 (40%) to lynch the remaining mafia. If we get our 4th success at 14%, it's a win. On that 29% of lynching a mafia if we bat .500, we'll either be at 2 mafia out of 5 total for a 40% chance to lynch a mafia or lose, or we'll be at 1 mafia out of 5 total with a 20% chance to lynch a mafia and win.

Out of those 2 scenarios, the game will only continue if there is 1 mafia left out of 3 people. 33% chance of lynching that mafia member. Then it goes to either a victory, or if Omei is the last townie standing she could vote to lynch one of the two (they'll point fingers at one another) and then before the mafia can get their night vote in brain fry the final mafia if she has a bullet let, or else the mafia wins. Otherwise, the mafia wins.

So there you go. You can run your simulations, maybe if things slow down at work I'll figure out a way to in Excel.

The TL;DR - townies are always going to be at a disadvantage in a raw, statistical sense. Llok is just trying to scare us into essentially not voting by asking what the "increasing percentage of loss chance every time you kill a civilian". It kind of goes without saying.

Llok · August 2013

Of course I am. I know I'm a civ so I know the potential outcome of this is a complete waste of a round. So.

Teani · August 2013

Alright, Llok, though still annoyingly difficult to read, is making some sense to me, and perhaps it is bad to just vote on someone for being annoying. I'm actually going to change to one of the other suspicious people instead. Hopefully I'm right in this.

Unvote Llok

Vote Aren

Demarcus · August 2013

Llok said:

Let me put it this way. I won't take a vote that has, in my eyes, a high risk of killing a civ unless that person targets me.

You won't take a vote unless someone targets you? So you'll take a vote that targets you? Llok, I'm getting so many contradictions and inconsistencies it isn't even funny. Is it no wonder that people (not just myself) find your posts confusing?

I gave you math. You're going to have to define the high risk of killing a civilian. > 50%? >60%? >70%? >80%? From a statistical standpoint, you've all but admitted that you're never going to vote because the townies will always outnumber the mafia based on the math that YOU requested. So it is all based on the probability as you see. Great. For all we know you're part of the mafia and your Townie-Vision is 100%. Your justification for your vote has been "screw you Aren."

Aren · August 2013

You're so not right in that Teani, or anyone else voting for me. It's just a bad move. Don't do it. Do NOT listen to Llok and his urgings to vote for me. I don't know why he has it out for me so much, but it could be because I targeted him first towards the beginning:

Llok said:

I won't take a vote that has, in my eyes, a high risk of killing a civ unless that person targets me.

I targetted him and now he's after me. In the first round he played it safe by doing a novote then saying "TOLD YOU SO' as if he knew. Second he went after Mesk and was the only one to vote for her, once again, keeping himself out of the whole 'train' thing in case we voted for a citizen (which we unfortunately did). You guys need to see what he's doing here. I've been suspicious of him from the beginning and I'll stand by it. If you all want to vote me off for some reason do it, but remember my last words about him.

VOTE: Llok

Omei · August 2013

I'm not lynching for obnoxiousness. I'm lynching for bad, distracting play. I would like to vote for Aren, but if people are going to vote for Llok - if that is how this is going to be - then I honestly just want to get rid of him so he doesn't waste our time at a more critical juncture. We want to have a thread free from hyperbole and attention-grabbing antics so we can focus on what's actually going on. If Llok is town, he has proven, by dint of his actions thus far, that he is being nothing but a nuisance to our cause.

None of us should be focusing on him.

As long as people are, though, I just want to get rid of him. It's standard policy in a lot of mafia I've played to lynch the loudest, most confusing people. They're not helpful, generally speaking. They're actually quite overbearing, and they make easy targets. The MafiaScum Wiki refers to this policy as 'lynch all liars' - in spite of the name, it can be briefly paraphrased as 'Kill everyone who plays elaborate, flashy gambits in the main thread.' This is usually distinct from roleclaiming, by the way.

Now. Here is why we should NOT be focusing on Llok.

Unvote: Llok

Aren is suspicious. Examine her last post. She just, essentially, gave up and said 'do it'. She points to a recurring trend by Llok, but frankly, I was suspicious of Xenia on round one and I took a gamble that ended up advancing the game substantially. Llok, although he has been enormously roundabout and confusing about it, has made good calls on lynches so far. Whether this means he's scum or not is hard to say, but at present I am inclined to think not; and it is unquestionable, here, that Aren's defense of herself is not satisfactory.

Vote: Aren

Aren · August 2013

I'm not giving up, but I'm saying if you're all gonna lynch me it's a bad idea and -then- maybe you'll start looking at Llok like I am. I also, just took a gamble on the people that I voted for and unfortunately they've been wrong so far. Llok -hasn't- made good calls about lynches. He's been staying out of any kind of train so he can claim it as his defense. I don't see how I'm suddenly so guilty when the quiet people like Etrigan are barely looked at.

Macavity · August 2013

VOTE: Aren

Llok · August 2013

If you read my post I say that I won't vote unless I really believe in the train. What's inconsistent about that?

I also, knowing I'm a civ am bound to look critically at people who vote for me.

That's not a post one way or another against or for Aren, just a FYI

Aren · August 2013

Well I'm a civ too, just putting that out there since you're gonna kill me it seems. Macavity, have a reason for voting for me? These scum are out to get me!

Aryanne · August 2013

I don't know why, but I really don't see Aren as being super-suspicious here. However, Llok is just sending off all kinds of red-flagging signals up to me. He has a point that, yes, we shouldn't vote for him if we think he's a civ and just want him gone because he's annoying you, that hurts us more than helps, but other than that one little kernel of logic, I don't see him bringing any benefit to our side at all.

His reasoning for URGING a lynch on Aren is just setting me off, why is he SO SURE? Did she get sniffed and we just didn't get told about it? One minute he's asking for people to check on Demarcus, the next he's voting for Aren because "screw you Aren". And part of his rationale here is that he is giving "something for others to focus on" because, what, heaven forbid we put a little stock into the the opinions of the only person we're SURE isn't a baddie? He has all these suspicions against Demarcus he's throwing around, but insists on voting for Aren? And hasn't REALLY given a good reason for that that I saw.

VOTE: LLOK

Aryanne · August 2013

Also: @aldric Can we get a vote summary? I'm having a hard time keeping track with all this jumbling here.

Demarcus · August 2013

I agree that Llok has made exactly 0 calls on lynching. His philosophy is 'Don't lynch citizens.' So he votes for nobody. Second round he votes for Aren out of spite because Aren was suspicious of him in Round 2. Now he's clearly voting for Aren out of spite here in Round 3. As I've previously stated, Llok's apparently strategy here is to 'not lynch citizens.' He's brought it up several times. Sorry Llok, you don't win the game by not lynching citizens. You win the game by lynching mafia. No lynches and voting out of spite are about as horrible of strategies as I can think of.

Everyone on the chopping block is going to claim they're a citizen. So those are entirely pointless posts.

Llok · August 2013

Several people have listed Aren as on their radar. Not just me. Consider the whole of that for why I'm voting for her.

Demarcus · August 2013

Llok said:

Several people have listed Aren as on their radar. Not just me. Consider the whole of that for why I'm voting for her.

So you're bandwagoning then?

Llok · August 2013

So you're trying a lame attempt at entrapping, then?

Aldric · August 2013

Aryanne said:

Also: @aldric Can we get a vote summary? I'm having a hard time keeping track with all this jumbling here.

As you wish!

Aren: (5) Llok, Etrigan, Teani, Omei, Macavity

Macavity: (1) Periluna

Llok: (4) Demarcus, Piper, Aren, Aryanne

8 Votes to Lynch

-----------

Luxey the Crier, son of the late (in)famous Buxey was stirred into action as he was given a message to shout to all the citizenry:

"Llok's change in syntax and use of negation makes it embarrassingly obvious he's lying," the man shouted rather slowly, as if reading it from a script.

"..I just read what I'm handed ladies and gentlemen, please don't lynch me next."

Meskhenet · August 2013

I tried to make it clear about Llok the previous day.

Even if he IS innocent, which I am highly doubting, he is counter-productive to us being able to act as a cohesive unit.

Therefore:

Vote: Llok (again)

Llok · August 2013

Stop overstating the effect I am having.

Draiman · August 2013

There's a difference between the effect you think you're having, and the effect you're actually having. You're bothering/annoying people too a pretty high level, it looks like.

Vote: Aren

Edit for color.

Llok · August 2013

Man that random post is random Drai. Looks really dodgy, heh.

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Mafia: The Return of Ashtan

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