Mafia: Riots in the streets of Enorian!

Demarcus

This is the game thread for our current current mafia game!

If you've never played on the forums before and would like an example of how the game goes, check out the Mafia: Dead Divinities thread for the latest successful example of a game.

The Rules:

-Each round is divided into one day and one night.
-During the day, everyone can talk and discuss among themselves. Voting also occurs during this time, and when a majority is reached I'll announce the death.
-A successful lynch or no-lynch vote ends the day phase of the round.
-During the night, you may talk but there is no voting.
-The night phase is over when all of the power folks PM me with what they want to do. If you don't respond in a timely manner (roughly 24 depending, because I know stuff can come up!) you'll forfeit the opportunity that round.
-NO posting screenshots or copies of PMs to people to prove you are a certain role. No spoiling the fun!
-You may at any time send me a PM to have an anonymous message posted to the rest of the players.

I will do my best to keep things going as smoothly as possible, but I do work a rather erratic schedule so that can be difficult.

Background:

The citizens of Enorian grow restless. A religious zeal has overcome the masses with the return of Lady Auresae, and paranoia runs rampant. Agents of Artifice, also known as The Instigators, have siezed this opportunity to stir trouble within Enorian to weaken the city with the intent to overthrow the current leadership and install their own. The Instigators work together to eliminate strategic members of Enorian with the intent to incite riots and have the city turn upon itself.

The Vanguard and his ruling council aren't going to stand by idly and allow this to happen. An investigation is underway to root out The Instigators and restore stability to Enorian. The Knight-Marshall and the Herald of Enorian are ready to do their part, and are asking the citizenry for their assistance with the investigation!

But that's not all. Among the masses is a single man, feared throughout the land for his intimdating, persistant shouts and unmatched fanatcism for the Light. Dubbed 'Locke the Lyncher' by his peers, he has returned to carry out his own personal mission of cleansing the world of those that refuse to reach for the Light. Or something. Does anyone even really know what is going on inside of Haven's head?

Roles -

Enorian

Vanguard: The elected leader of Enorian. Once per night can send his personal bodyguards to protect a single person from any attempts on their lives.

Knight-Marshall: The strong arm of the law. Once per night can raid an individual's domicile and determine their occupation.

Herald: The influential voice of the Enorian commonfolk. Each round, they may elect to have their vote to lynch carry double the weight of a normal person's. (Can, via message, have up to 2 votes on any active train. The second vote will be announced via messenger, and does not need to be on the same train.)

Some Poor Sap: A doe-eyed, utterly and completely innocent bystander that has upset Haven Locke in some terrible way. They have a target on their back and don't even know it.

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The Instigators

Grand Poohbah: The mastermind whipping up the frenzy that has overtaken the commonfolk of Enorian. A master of Artifice, can set what they would like their occupation to be should they be investigated by the Knight-Marshall. Changeable once per day (day or night round, but not both!).

Shadowy Assassins: Henchmen of the Poohbah. With the Poohbah, votes on whom to assassinate each night round with the intent of inciting a riot the following morning.

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Haven Locke: Also known as 'Locke the Lyncher', has a separate win condition apart from Enorian and The Instigators. Must be on the train (but does not necessarily have to start it!) to lynch Some Poor Sap. Should the Poohbah and his Instigators assassinate the target before he can lynch them, will instead need to get themselves lynched in order to win.

Win Conditions:

-Enorian wins when peace is restored and The Instigators have all been eliminated.
-The Instigators win if they manage to outnumber the citizens of Enorian in voting power.
-Haven Locke wins if he is a part of a successful lynch of Some Poor Sap -OR- gets himself lynched should Some Poor Sap get assassinated in the dark of night. (Completely independent of the Enorian/Instigators win conditions, game does not end if Haven wins no matter how much Haven would like it to.)

Living Players:

Aarbrok
Alee
Aren
Damariel
Damonicus
Ilyon
Llok
Moirean
Parker
Slyphe
Teani
Toz
Xenia

The Deceased:

Teani
Parker
Moirean
Damariel

Moirean

Vote: Llok.

Because that sounds suspiciously like Haven Locke.

Demarcus

A large poster has been posted at Four Corners. It reads, "I have consulted my Magic 8 Ball regarding the recent assassination and subsequent riots. Please stop rioting while we figure this out. The Magic 8 Ball says something foul is afoot. All of my artifacts can't discern who is behind it, so the Knight-Marshall will be leading an investigation to weed out the instigators of these heinous crimes! Citizens of Enorian, I implore you to aid the Knight-Marshall however you can! Lets get to it! -The Enorian Leadership"

It is Day 1

7 votes are needed to lynch

(Two side notes: Should the Herald use their power to vote twice, and there are 7 votes for each potential lynchee, there will be No Lynch. One of the perks of being in a power role, I suppose! This rule will follow for each subsequent round where there are an odd number of players with the Herald still alive, permitting a tie vote to be achieved.

Second, should you have any rules questions, you can PM them to me and I will answer them, responding via PM and clarifying in a post if necessary. Or you can post here if it is part of your strategy, or you missed this note, entirely up to you -- just wanted to throw that out there since it wasn't explicitly stated in the rules!)

Llok

Vote: Moirean because that's no way to treat an olde friend

Moirean

Right. I'm going to play risky, because I want to get an alliance started early. I am the Herald. Send me your roles and I will coordinate communication between the power roles. Expect proof momentarily.

Moirean

The proof being a vote on Toz. Cuz he didn't bring me flowers.

Teani

So, how is that proof exactly? I mean, flowers are nice and all, but...

Moirean

No, I'm saying that the proof will be a Herald vote on Toz. Demarcus has to post that.

Damonicus

Demarcus said the second vote will be revealed by messenger, not name of Herald. Also, that does not exactly give proof of whom you are cause now ANYONE can post a message to Dam and say hey vote for Toz to cover your assumption. Also, are you still voting Llok with your other as Toz?

Moirean

No, not anyone. Only the Herald can make a Herald vote. If I wasn't the Herald, why would the Herald follow through and bolster my claim?

Damonicus

Keep them from the spotlight. Placing a bigger target on your back. Even though you still can be protected via the vanguard and have it set up. It is not an exact way to prove who you say you are. This game setup has no actual way of proving whom anyone is unless the Knight Marshal says who they are. So why I am not in agreeance of saying you are the Herald, I do not mind going along with the plan unless the first round kills off an Enorite. As you are much more vocal in these games then a few others, Unless you are a pure baddie it will not really hurt.

Moirean

No, if I were not the Herald, it would be really really really stupid for the Herald to make it look like I was, because they'd be encouraging power roles to reveal themselves to someone absolutely unverified. That's just an all-around bad idea.

Let's assume the Herald isn't trying to sabotage the game. Under that assumption, if someone says "I am the Herald and I will be voting for x" and then a post comes up saying "The Herald says vote for x" it's essentially guaranteed that this person is the Herald.

So, once Demarcus posts (it looks like he went to bed or work riiiight after I sent him my request), we can verify that I'm the Herald and start forming a good-guy alliance.

Xenia

I know a lot of you are fans of the random lynch on day 1. However, I would like to point out that strategically, when looking at this from a numerical stand point, this is not the best move.

On a random lynch we'd have a 23% chance of killing off one of the Enorian power roles, and a 15% chance of getting really lucky with the Instigators. Suppose the second-best case scenario is that we kill off a citizen who's only influence is to vote during the day.

Well, the issue with this I see is that we will increase the odds for the Instigators. With the day 1 random lynch where they survive the lynching, their chances for picking off a power role will increase from 23% (the same chances presented in the day1 random lynch) to 30%.

Moirean presents the best option, supposing she is indeed the Harold, in that if we can find someone we can trust, the marshall can be directed towards investigating the counter claims.

Based on the above logic, my day 1 vote is for a

• No Lynch
  

Edit: Attempting to turn my vote to red, but can't find the option.

Toz

You know, I like day 1 lynches. A great deal. That being said? Best option for town is a nolynch, imo - unless I'm the Grand Poohbear or whatever, an investigate on me night 1 shows I'm innocent or guilty. Obviously I will say I'm innocent no matter what, so we're not going to get into that - instead, an investigate on me ups the chances statistically speaking.

Some quick breakdowns:

Lynch me now:
13 total players.
- 13 players, 4 power (counting sap-eyed doe), 2 evil, 1 neutral.
- We can discard Moirean and her power role (though that's not confirmed, it simplifies things)
- 1 out of 6 picks, I'm a baddie.
- 1 out of 12 (8.33333333333333%) I'm a baddie that investigating won't work on
- 25% I'm a power role that is not Herald.
- And of course, in addition to that 25% of power role, 50% that I'm just an ikkle civ.

Wait for an investigate:
- If we hit that 1/12 that I'm a baddie, insta-lynch and you're halfway home
- I come up clean, strong likelihood of civilian (1 chance out of 3 power role + 7 normals = 1/10 = 10%)
- This removes 1 person from the pool of 'let's murder!' and ups our odds on a random hit by 1 - assuming I'm removed from the pool (worst case scenario, honestly, because not being removed means 100% chance of a lynch on a baddie) we have 11 players, 3 power (counting sap-eyed doe, assuming I'm NOT a power role), 2 evil, 1 neutral. We don't care about the neutral, so count it as a civ for now. That's 11 players, 2 evil, 9 non-targets. 2/11 = 18.18% chance. So our chances do go up - and if the night kill goes through, we bump up even further to 2/10, or 20%, whereas a lynch now is 2/12, or 16.66666%.

All that being said, @Moirean is probably just the Haven char trying to cheese a turn 1 win because who cares if we lynch her tomorrow if she wins right now.

Moirean

I'm not actually calling to lynch you. I'm just using you as my proof (for whenever Demarcus wakes up) because I like you!

And, honestly, I don't see how I can be anyone but the Herald. Just wait until the vote comes through and you'll see.

Toz

50% chance if someone else roleclaims Herald of getting your win condition on day 1. Add in a small % bonus due to crowd manipulation since you got your claim out first and it's the best odds you'll have all game, Mr. Locke.

Moirean

I don't think you guys understand how Herald works.

I PM him saying who I want to put my extra vote on.

He then posts saying "THE HERALD SAYS THIS".

The round continues.

The role can't be impersonated - I've named you. When he posts saying that the Herald named you, it'll be either me being the Herald or...what?

Toz

I see. I misunderstood the role, I thought it was 'there will be a 2nd Herald vote that appears on the train, but only confirmed by a lynch'. So if you vote on me and everyone's clear it's NOT a lynchtrain, that's fine.

Slyphe

We're getting rather quick to jump to the defensive here, but nothing that's ultimately got me side-eyeing anything at the moment.

I'm going to vote: @Llok for now.

Toz

Come at me, bro. I'll sling math at you. I'll derive you crazy with it.

Teani

Waiting to hear from Demarcus then, but to me it seems like a no lynch is a good option at the moment.

Ilyon

Nolynch generally favors the mafia, not sure if that's a good idea!

Toz

2/13 chance of killing a civ, without taking anything else into account. 15% chance of a hit. They kill someone round 1, we get a Herald roleclaim to coordinate with everyone else, we don't waste an innocent civ life (potentially something vital, like the doctor) and we have a higher chance of getting someone bad the next day - assuming everyone cooperates + we lose a normal civ (best case scenario), our odds skyrocket to 12 (13-1 from night death) - 1 (confirmed Herald) - 2 (Vanguard/Marshall) = 9 potential targets. 2/9 = 22.222% chance of hitting a guilty AND we won't trip up and hit a vital role if we let Herald suggest targets.

Xenia

Toz basically has broken down what I was trying to say in my initial post, @Ilyon. It is in the town's favor to do a no lynch, strictly looking at the odds numerically.

Alee

I'm against day one lynches as we have yet to gain sufficient evidence to rightfully do so. Give those with the ability to investigate to do so and we can decide on day two where to go.

Demarcus

Sorry for the delay, that dang thing called sleep got in the way... there have been some developments!

A messenger bearing the Herald's coat of arms dashes through the streets shouting, "The Herald has made their will be known! Toz must die!"

Official Vote Update:

Moirean: Llok (1)
Llok: Moirean, Slyphe (2)
Toz: Herald (1)
No Lynch: Xenia (1)

7 votes are needed for a lynch

Moirean

Right. So. I'm the Herald. Send me your role info if you're someone important.

Vote: Llok
Vote: No Lynch

Alee

Hmmm... No Lynch

Moirean

Do:

<font color="red">stuff</font>

Toz

cecho("\nVote: Nolynch")

Xenia

I would like to add, that as players are confirmed as innocent, that they be brought into the fold of discussions. Last game I played, even though I was confirmed innocent for some time, for one reason or another, people wouldn't communicate who was trustworthy-- not even in PMs. It made for some bad vote choices. If possible, let's avoid this.